USDA on Thursday released its June Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. For 2020/2021 production corn and soybeans remained unchanged from the May report.
USDA dropped new-crop (2020-21) soybean ending stocks to 395 million bushels (mb), the lowest predicted possibility among pre-report analyst estimates. That change was driven largely by higher than expected soybean crush forecast, USDA said.
USDA raised old-crop ending stocks by 5 mb to 2.103 billion bushels (bb). That bumped up the new stocks for the 2020-21 crop, which was the only real numbers change made in the 2020-21 demand and use figures for corn.
Ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were increased 5 mb to 3.323 bb.
USDA maintained planted acres for the 2020-21 corn crop at 97 million acres with a yield estimate at 178.5 bushels per acres (bpa) and production pegged at 15.995 bb.
USDA pegged feed and residual use for the 2020-21 crop at 6.05 bb and also maintained ethanol demand for the year at 5.2 bb. Exports were projected at 2.15 bb. All of those figures were the same as the May report.
Total demand for the 2020-21 crop is pegged at 14.8 bb. With a 3.323 bb ending stocks, that puts the stocks-to-use ratio at 22.4%.
In the old crop, USDA lowered production by 45 mb but also lowered ethanol demand another 50 mb, dropping it to 4.9 bb. That led to the 5-million bushel carryover.
The average farm-gate price was projected at $3.20 a bushel, the same as May.
Globally, corn production for the 2019-20 crop year for Brazil and Argentina remained the same as April. Brazil was pegged at 101 million metric tons (mmt) and 50 mmt for Argentina.
As expected, USDA left new crop (2020-21) soybean production unchanged at 4.125 bb, with average yield pegged at 49.8 bpa on 83.5 million planted acres.
As mentioned, new crop ending stocks were pegged at 395 mb, a lower-than-expected drop thanks to increased soybean crush forecast offsetting slightly higher beginning stocks and imports. Specifically, soybean crush was increased by 15 mb, beginning stocks were raised by 5 mb.
At 585 mb, old crop (2019-20) soybean ending stocks came within the range of pre-report analyst estimates.
Farm-gate soybean prices were pegged at $8.20 per bushel for new-crop soybeans, down from $8.50 per bushel for old-crop.
Globally, old crop soybean ending stocks were estimated at 99.19 mmt, down from the 100.3 mmt estimate in May and within analyst expectations. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 96.34 mmt, on the low end of analyst estimates, and down from 98.39 mmt in May.
USDA left old crop soybean production in Brazil at 124 mmt, despite concerns of dry weather depressing yields there. Argentina’s soybean production was trimmed from May’s estimate by 1 mmt to 50 mmt, down from 55.3 mmt last year.
USDA also raised the carryover for wheat by 5 mb, but USDA also raised wheat production for the 2020-21 crop by 11 mb to 1.877 bb as well. The 5 mb carryover came from lowering exports for the 2019-20 crop by that volume.
Total supply was pegged at 3 bb. Food use remained the same as May at 964 mb. Feed and residual use remained at 100 mb. Exports also held the same as May at 950 mb.
Ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were increased 16 mb to 925 mb.
The average farm gate price for the 2020-21 crop remained at $4.60 a bushel as well.
World wheat supplies for 2020-21 were increased 5.7 mmt on a 4.9 mmt increase in production and higher beginning stocks. USDA raised production for both India, up 4.2 mmt, and Australia, up 2 mmt. USDA lowered wheat production in the European Union by 2 mmt and also lowered Ukraine production by 1.5 mmt.
Total annual beef production projections were increased by 910 million pounds in the June estimate from the May report, with estimated beef production is currently at 26.67 billion pounds. Pork production increased moderately from the May levels with a boost of 340 million pounds on an annual basis.
The focus on returning to more normal production levels following the last two months of corona virus shutdowns and reduced plant capacity is putting the expectation that 2020 production would be 98% of 2019 beef production, while pork production is estimated at 100.4% of 2019 levels.
Projected price levels have shifted moderately from the previous report with average projected steer prices increasing $4.50 per cwt from May estimates, while Barrow and gilt prices remain under pressure, falling $0.70 per cwt from May levels.
Steer prices are projected to dip to $104 per cwt in the 3rd quarter, while moving higher again at the end of the year to $106 per cwt, the same price level expected for second quarter. Hog prices are expected to increase moderately in the third and fourth quarters from current second-quarter estimates, but limited aggressive movement is likely to be seen in hog prices before the end of the year.
Meat demand is expected to slowly increase from May levels, with June projections pushing meat annual beef production of 103% of Mays estimate, while essentially stable with 2019 levels. Pork demand is projected to rise in the June projections, 101% of May estimates, but overall pork utilization and use is now projected to fall from 2019 levels, with current estimates at 98.1% of year ago levels.
|US Corn & Soybean Production 2020 Millions of Bushels||June||Average||Range||USDA May||USDA 2019|
|US 19-20 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels||June||Average||Range||USDA May|
|US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels||June||Average||Range||USDA May|
|World Stockpiles19-20 Million Metric Tons||June||Average||Range||USDA May|
|World Stockpiles 20-21 Million Metric Tons||June||Average||Range||USDA May|
|US Wheat Production Est. 2020||June||Average||Range||USDA May||USDA 19-20|
|Hard Red Winter||743||754||678-830||733||833|
|Soft Red Winter||297||291||201-305||298||239|
|Brazilian Production 2019-2020 (Million Metric Tons)||June||Average||Range||USDA May|
|Argentina Crop Production 2019-2020 (Million Metric Tons)||June||Average||Range||USDA May|