WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, lower domestic use,
unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Food use is reduced 10 million bushels to
960 million, on lower wheat flour grind as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products
report released on February 1. The reduction is the result of the October-December
quarter, which was the lowest flour grind on record for this quarter as reported in Flour
Milling Products. Wheat exports are unchanged at 725 million bushels with offsetting by class changes for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 658 million. The 2023/24 season-average farm price forecast is unchanged at $7.20 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, consumption, and trade
but lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.5 million tons to 1,057.0 million, primarily
on higher production for Iraq and Argentina. Global consumption is raised 1.1 million tons
to 797.5 million, mainly on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use in India, where the
government is continuing to sell reserves to address price inflation. World trade is raised
1.2 million tons to 210.7 million with higher exports by Ukraine, Argentina, Australia, and
Turkey that more than offset reduced exports from the United Kingdom and Brazil.
Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are lowered 0.7 million tons to 259.4 million, the lowest
level since 2015/16, on decreases for India, China, and Ukraine.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for lower food, seed, and
industrial use and larger ending stocks. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced
10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, U.S.
corn ending stocks are up 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn
price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 3.8 million tons lower to 1,510.1
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually
unchanged consumption, and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn
production is down, with reductions for Brazil, Mexico, and Serbia partially offset by
increases for India and Turkey. For Brazil, production is cut based on lower expected
area.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine
and Pakistan with reductions for Brazil, India, and Serbia. For 2022/23, Argentina’s
exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2023 are raised based on observed
shipments to date, while Brazil is lowered. Corn imports for 2023/24 are cut for
Bangladesh and the EU. Barley exports are raised for Australia and Ukraine but lowered
for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, India, the EU, Mexico, and Paraguay. Global corn ending stocks, at 322.1 million tons, are down 3.2 million.
OILSEEDS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean exports
and higher ending stocks. Soybean exports are forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35
million from last month, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January and strong
competition with Brazil. With crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 315 million
bushels, up 35 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel,
down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per
short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 51 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks,
lower production, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month.
Beginning stocks are raised 1.7 million tons mainly on a higher 2022/23 crop for Brazil.
Brazil’s 2022/23 production is raised 2.0 million tons to 162.0 million on a higher area and
yield, and reflects nearly finalized crush and export data through the end of the crop year.
Brazil’s 2023/24 crop is reduced 1.0 million tons to 156.0 million as higher harvested area
is offset by a lower yield on adverse weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso and
Parana.
Global soybean exports for 2023/24 are reduced 0.4 million tons to 170.6 million on lower
shipments for the United States. Partly offsetting are higher exports for Brazil on a strong
year-to-date (October-January) pace. Imports are reduced for Vietnam. Global soybean
ending stocks are increased 1.4 million tons to 116.0 million on higher stocks for the
United States and Brazil.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use
estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect December production, ending stock, and trade
data.
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter is lowered for
the first half, reflecting a slower pace of cattle slaughter. For the second half, steer and
heifer slaughter is raised as USDA’s January Cattle report implied a smaller decline in
cattle outside feedlots than previously expected and to the extent these cattle are placed
on feed in the first half, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
Carcass weights for the second half are also raised. Pork production is lowered on a
slower pace of slaughter. Broiler production is raised for the first quarter on expectations
of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered as the sector continues to adjust to
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries in 2023 and early 2024 as well as
relatively weak demand. Egg production is reduced slightly on recent layer flock data.
Beef imports for 2024 are raised for the year on firm demand for imported beef and larger
supplies of beef, largely in Oceania. The beef export forecast is unchanged. The pork
export forecast is raised on the pace of exports in late 2023 and expectations of
continued firm demand in a number of key markets. Broiler exports are reduced on higher
U.S. prices and weaker import demand, but lower turkey prices are expected to support
gains in turkey exports in early 2024.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle
in the face of tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are raised on lower pork production
and steady demand. First-half broiler prices are projected higher on current prices.
Turkey prices are lowered on recent prices and continued weak demand. Egg prices are
raised on recent prices and expectations of relatively firm demand strength post-Easter.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect December domestic and
trade data.
For 2024, milk production is lowered due to lower expected output per cow, which is
partly offset by higher cow inventories. On a fat basis, domestic use is raised as a more
rapid pace of disappearance during the fourth quarter of 2023 carries over into 2024. Fat
basis exports are raised, based on higher expected butter and cheese exports, as the
United States is expected to be competitive on the international market for those
products. Fat basis imports are lowered. Skim-solids basis domestic use is also raised
based on higher-than-expected disappearance in fourth-quarter 2023. Skim-solids basis
exports are lowered to reflect the strength of domestic prices as domestic demand is
stronger.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices for 2024 are all raised based on
recent price strength, tighter supplies of milk, and stronger domestic use. Class III and
Class IV prices in 2024 are also raised based on higher product prices. The all milk price
estimate for 2023 is reduced to $20.48 per cwt based on reported data through
December. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is raised to $20.95 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet has lower ending stocks relative to
last month, with higher exports and lower mill use, while production is unchanged. The
export forecast is raised 200,000 bales to 12.3 million based on a strong pace of
shipments and sales to date. Similarly, projected mill use is reduced 150,000 bales as
U.S. domestic spinning activity remains low. Ending stocks are now estimated at 2.8
million bales, equivalent to 20 percent of total disappearance. The upland cotton
marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 77 cents per pound, 1
cent higher than in January.
World 2023/24 cotton ending stocks are nearly 700,000 bales lower this month, as lower
beginning stocks and production reduce supplies. World consumption is virtually
unchanged as increases in China and Vietnam are offset by lower consumption in Turkey,
the United States, and Thailand. Beginning stocks are 250,000 bales lower than in
January largely due to a downward revision in Argentina’s 2022/23 cotton crop. Projected
2023/24 world cotton production is 355,000 bales lower this month, with cuts in Australia
and Benin partly offset by smaller increases elsewhere. World trade is nearly 200,000
bales lower as a 500,000-bale increase in China’s imports is more than offset by
reductions for India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey. Exports are higher for the United
States, Burkina Faso, and Turkey, and lower for Brazil, Argentina, and Australia.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/
