Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up less than 1
percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from 2023. Based on
conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 183.8 bushels per
harvested acre, up 0.2 bushel from the previous forecast and up 6.5 bushels
from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres,
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from the previous
year.
Soybean production for beans is forecast at a record high
4.58 billion bushels, down slightly from the previous forecast but up
10 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are
expected to average a record high 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from
the previous forecast but up 2.5 bushels from 2023. Area harvested for beans
in the United States is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2023.
All cotton production is forecast at 14.2 million 480-pound bales, down
2 percent from the previous forecast but up 18 percent from 2023. Based on
conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 789 pounds per
harvested acre, down 18 pounds from the previous forecast and down 110 pounds
from 2023. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound
bales, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 16 percent from 2023.
Pima cotton production is forecast at 516,000 bales, down 6 percent from the
previous forecast but up 63 percent from 2023. All cotton area harvested is
forecast at 8.63 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up
34 percent from 2023.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, larger
domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 6 million
bushels to 2,783 million, as reduced beginning stocks and lower production are partly offset
by larger imports. Production is reduced 11 million bushels to 1,971 million, as reported in
the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary released September 30. Imports are raised 10
million bushels to 115 million based on a strong pace of imports for the first three months of
the marketing year. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels to 120 million on higher feed
and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 30 indicated a yearto-year increase for first quarter (June-August) feed and residual disappearance from a year
earlier. Exports remain at 825 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes.
Projected ending stocks are lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, but still up 17
percent from the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.70 per
bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for reduced supplies, consumption, and trade but
slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 1.9 million tons to 1,060.3 million
primarily on reduced production for the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil. Declines in supplies
were only partially offset by higher production for Ukraine and larger beginning stocks for
Russia. Global consumption is reduced 2.4 million tons to 802.5 million, with lower Food,
Seed, and Industrial use in India and Afghanistan. World trade is decreased 0.7 million tons
to 215.8 million on reduced exports by the EU that are partly offset by an increase for
Ukraine. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to 257.7 million,
but are still the lowest since 2015/16.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month, as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork,
broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised on higher cattle slaughter, and
heavier dressed weights for the third and fourth quarters. Pork production is lowered on a
slower pace of slaughter and lower dressed weights. Broiler production for the third quarter
is reduced based on recent slaughter data. This more than offsets a higher fourth quarter forecast due to recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on recent
production and hatchery data. Total egg production is lowered on recent production data and
a slower-than-previously-expected growth rate in the laying flock. The forecast for 2025 red
meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef
production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, particularly in the first half of the
year, and heavier weights. Pork production is raised as the pig crop and farrowing intentions
estimates in the September 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pointed to larger hog
supplies, particularly in the first half of 2025, which will translate to increased pork production
during the year. Broiler production is raised due to a higher price outlook. Turkey production
is lowered as the reduced price outlook in 2024 and 2025 is expected to dampen the rate of
recovery. Total egg production is unchanged.
Beef import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised on continued strength in demand and
availability of supplies from Oceania and South America. Beef exports are lowered for 2024
on recent trade data. There are no changes to the 2025 beef export forecast. The pork
export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the 2025 export forecast is
raised on higher U.S. supplies and improved international demand, particularly in the second
half of the year. The broiler export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data and
weaker competitiveness relative to other major exporters. The broiler export forecast for
2025 is also lowered, as increased competition from other major exporters is expected to
carry into 2025. The turkey export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the
forecast is unchanged for 2025.
