The final trading week of September and the 3rd quarter is upon us and the September is living up to it’s reputation as one of the toughest months for bullish sentiment and traders.
Outside equities continued in their risk off sentiment from last week. This comes as currencies around the world crash against the US dollar. Sending Central Banks into crisis mode. At the top of the list is the British Pound now at 40 year lows against the US dollar. Meanwhile the Bank of England has yet to move on interest rates.
Also over the weekend there was plenty of rumors swirling about a possible coup in China. There was military movement by the Chinese army towards the capital of Beijing. There was also a cancellation of nearly 60% of domestic flights in China over the weekend. Monday most analysts explained that the army movement likely came from China’s CCP annual Congress where Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected for an unheard of 4th term is in just a few weeks. Meanwhile the airline cancellations are likely related to China’s push of discouraging travel during the Golden Week holiday next week.
In the grain complex the stronger US dollar index and fears of demand destruction of raw commodities related to global recession kept plenty of pressure against the supply bulls. Export inspections stalled out the single attempt at a rally mid session on Monday. USDA inspected just half of the corn, soybeans and wheat of the previous week. In looking at the export data compared to the USDA expectations laid out in the recent WASDE the US is back about 42 million bushels of corn and 82 million bushels of soybeans to reach USDA expectations. Meanwhile wheat is still down 7 million bushels, but actually closed the gap over a million bushels since last week.
In the livestock side of the trade last Friday’s cattle on feed report helped to get the cattle off to an early start, but overwhelming pressure from the broader market complex brought cattle lower by the close. This continues to add more technical pressure for cattle.
Lean hogs were worried about a falling cutout from last week and continued uncertainty in Chinese demand for US pork.
In the country last week the fed cattle cash market waited until Thursday to get started. Then is started in the more negotiated North rather than in the South. Northern dressed deals ranging from $226 to $234, mostly $228, $1 higher than the prior week’s weighted average, basis Nebraska. Southern live deals had a range of $142 to $145, mostly $143, also $1 higher than the previous week’s weighted averages.
For the week ending September 17, 2022, Imported Beef Passed for Entry in the U.S. totaled 48,500, 130.51% of the previous week and 113.69% of the 4-week average.
Daily slaughter estimates Monday
125,000 hd today 117,000 hd wk ago 119,000 hd yr ago
484,000 hd today 478,000 hd wk ago 474,000 hd yr ago
Friday Midday Carcass Cutout
Choice dn 0.07 248.56
Select up 3.90 223.21
C/S Spread 25.35
Carcass up 0.64 101.57
Bellies up 4.89 130.30
Pre-opening grains with Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing
Pre-opening livestock with Jerry Stowell of Country Futures
Midday market commentary with Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics
Closing grain market commentary with Donna Hughes of Daniels Ag Marketing
Closing market commentary with Jack Fenske with York Commodities