WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged
domestic use, increased exports, and lower stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat
production is forecast at 1,875 million bushels, up 17 million from last month on higher Hard
Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter.
The all wheat yield is 49.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month. The export
forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million, as U.S. wheat prices are expected to be
increasingly competitive with reduced exportable Black Sea supplies. Ending stocks are
lowered slightly to 758 million bushels but still significantly higher than the previous year. The
2024/25 season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per bushel to $6.50 on higher expected
futures and cash prices and tightening global wheat supplies.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The
season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release
its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and
harvested area.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 1.511 billion.
This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and
smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is marginally higher,
with increases for Ukraine and Zambia partially offset by a reduction for Russia. Corn area is
raised for Ukraine but lowered for Russia. Zambia is higher reflecting increases to both area and yield. Foreign barley production is cut, reflecting reductions for the EU, India, Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine that are partly offset by an increase for Australia.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for Ukraine and Tanzania
but a reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique.
For 2023/24, corn exports are raised for South Africa, Russia, the EU, and Uruguay. Barley
exports for 2024/25 are lowered for Argentina, Russia, and the EU but raised for Australia.
Barley imports are raised for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last
month, mostly reflecting reductions for South Africa, Russia, and Tanzania. Global corn
ending stocks, at 310.8 million tons, are down 1.5 million.
The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending
stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced crush for 2023/24, down 10 million bushels
on lower soybean meal domestic use that is partly offset by higher exports. Soybean oil
domestic use is also lowered for 2023/24 and partly offset by higher exports. With increased
supplies for 2024/25 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 455
million bushels, up 10 million. The soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel, unchanged
from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged, at $330 per short ton and
42 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is lowered 1.3 million tons to 685.8 million mainly on
lower rapeseed production for Australia and the European Union. Rapeseed production is
lowered for Australia on lower harvested area while production in the EU is lowered on a
reduced yield for France.
The 2024/25 global soybean outlook includes lower beginning and ending stocks. Higher
beginning stocks for the U.S. are offset by lower stocks for Brazil and Paraguay. Brazil’s
stocks are lowered on a downward revision to 2023/24 production, down 1.0 million to 153.0
million, reflecting further in-country assessments of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul by Brazil’s
state agency Emater.
