WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use,
exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased wheat production and beginning
stocks. All wheat production is raised 134 million bushels to 2,008 million, on an increase in
harvested area and higher yields. The first 2024 survey-based production forecasts for other
spring wheat and Durum indicated an increase from last year for both classes at 578 million and
89 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,341 million
bushels on an increase in harvested area and yields. Beginning stocks are raised on the June 1
stocks reported in NASS Grain Stocks. Imports are lowered 15 million bushels to 105 million.
Feed and residual use is increased 10 million bushels to 110 million on larger supplies. With
larger supplies, exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million. Projected 2024/25 ending
stocks are raised 98 million bushels to 856 million, up 22 percent from last year and the highest
in five years. The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price is reduced $0.80 per bushel to
$5.70 on higher stocks, recent declines in futures and cash prices, and lower projected U.S. corn
prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks.
Supplies are increased 6.9 million tons to 1,057.2 million, primarily on larger beginning stocks for
several countries and higher production, mainly for the United States, Pakistan, and Canada.
Pakistan’s production forecast is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 31.4 million, based on
government estimates indicating a large yield. Canada’s production is increased 1.0 million tons
to 35.0 million on improved moisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces. Global consumption is
raised 1.9 million tons to 799.9 million on higher food, seed, and industrial use and feed and
residual use for several countries. World trade is virtually unchanged at 212.9 million tons as
higher exports for the United States, Canada, and Pakistan are nearly offset by reductions for the
EU, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 5.0 million tons
to 257.2 million, mostly on increases for the United States, China, Argentina, Pakistan, and
Canada more than offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU, and Iran.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater
domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered
145 million bushels, mostly reflecting a greater use forecast for 2023/24. Exports are raised 75
million bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date. Feed and residual use
is up 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June Grain Stocks report. Corn
production for 2024/25 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area
from the June Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is
raised 100 million bushels with increases to both feed and residual use and exports based on
larger supplies and lower expected prices. With use rising slightly more than supply, ending
stocks are down 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is
lowered 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.512 billion.
This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use, and larger
stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced based on declines for the EU,
Canada, and Russia. Canada is down based on lower area. For the EU and Russia, extreme
early-season heat in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of
Russia reduce yield prospects. For 2023/24, corn production is lowered for Argentina, Pakistan,
Mexico, and the Philippines. Foreign barley production for 2024/25 is down with cuts for Canada,
the EU, and Russia.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for the United States with
reductions for Russia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Canada and Mexico but lowered
for Iran and Bangladesh. For 2023/24 corn exports are raised for Ukraine and the United States
but lowered for Argentina, Pakistan, and India. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are
higher, with increases for Pakistan, Mexico, and Turkey partly offset by a decline for Ukraine.
Global corn stocks, at 311.6 million tons, are up 0.9 million.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is projected at 131.5 million tons, up 0.3 million
from last month, with increases for rapeseed, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset by reductions
for soybeans and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15
million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 85.3 million acres in the June
Acreage report, is down 0.3 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at
52.0 bushels per acre. With slightly lower beginning stocks, reduced production, and unchanged
use, ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 435 million bushels, down 20 million from last
month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast at $11.10 per bushel, down
$0.10 from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged, at $330 per short ton and 42
cents per pound, respectively.
Foreign oilseed production for 2024/25 is reduced slightly on lower sunflowerseed output mostly
offset by higher rapeseed. Sunflowerseed production is reduced on lower yield prospects for
Russia and Ukraine due to hot and dry weather conditions early in the season. Foreign rapeseed
production is increased for Canada and the EU. Foreign soybean production is unchanged with
higher production for Canada offset by lower production for Russia.
Global soybean beginning stocks for 2024/25 are increased slightly, with higher stocks for China
mainly offset by lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay due to revisions for 2023/24.
Argentina’s soybean production for 2023/24 is revised down 0.5 million tons to 49.5 million
guided by data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. China’s soybean
imports for 2023/24 are revised up 3.0 million tons to 108.0 million on larger-than-anticipated
arrivals expected in the fourth quarter of the marketing year. Exports for Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay, Benin, and Canada are also raised for 2023/24.
With slightly higher beginning stocks, lower global production, and relatively small changes to
use in 2024/25, global soybean stocks are reduced 0.1 million tons to 127.8 million on lower
stocks for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, the EU, and the United States, mostly offset by
higher stocks for China.
