This week’s Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup featured insights from Matt Stuever and Alex Gade of Tredas. The grain markets experienced significant fluctuations, ending the week with mixed results across various commodities.
Corn Market Recap:
- Support and Resistance: Corn found support at the $4.60 level, rebounded on Thursday, but faced congestion between $4.70 to $4.80. The 200-day moving average remains a key resistance point at $4.90.
- Weekly Movement: July corn closed down 2 1/2 cents, while December corn inched up 1/4 cent.
Soybean Market Recap:
- Price Levels: Soybeans found support around $11.50 but struggled with a 70-cent sell-off. Congestion persists between $11.75 to $11.90, with the 200-day moving average at $12.25.
- Weekly Movement: July soybeans closed down 25 3/4 cents, and November soybeans fell by 26 3/4 cents.
Factors Influencing Market Movements:
- Crop Conditions
- Weather Impact
- Brazilian Tax Changes
Producer Sentiment and Basis Trends:
- Producer Hesitancy: Frustration over low corn prices is causing hesitation among producers to engage in the market.
- Basis Trends: Corn basis firmed up by 10-15 cents due to planting delays and moisture, while the bean basis remained stagnant.
Economic News:
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Exceeded expectations with 272,000 jobs, impacting market sentiment.
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: Returned to 4.4%, with the Federal Reserve likely holding off on interest rate cuts until December.
Market Outlook: June often provides marketing opportunities for grain, and this year may see potential rebounds depending on weather developments and other geopolitical events. Weather remains a critical factor, with the possibility of market rallies based on heat conditions.
