- Return of the emotions of the markets yesterday
- Wheat still dealing with Russia
- Is there a big reversal in the weather pattern at the end of this month for South America?
- USDA numbers pretty close to StoneX numbers
- Sept 1 corn stalk numbers were adjusted as well this week
- Higher corn-how have cattle been reacting?
- WASDE Report
- How did the USDA get to those USDA numbers?
- What will the overnight & Wednesday trade be like?
- Corn/Bean/Wheat info
- How will livestock continue to react?
USDA today released its January Crop Production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Quarterly Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 125 million on lower-than-expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is up 1 million bushels to 63 million, reflecting 2020/21 wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are reduced 26 million bushels to 836 million, down 19 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $4.85 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices
for the remainder of the marketing year.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for smaller supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are lowered 1.6 million tons to 1,072.7 million on reduced production in China and Argentina more than offsetting an increase for Russia.
Corn sent to limit gains following USDA data drop Tuesday | Jeff Peterson – Heartland Farm Partners
China’s production is reduced 1.8 million tons to 134.3 million on the National Bureau of Statistics estimate. Russia’s production is raised 1.3 million tons to a new record of 85.3 million, based on estimates from Russia’s statistical agency Rosstat, surpassing the 2017/18 crop. Argentina’s production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 17.5 million on updated harvest results to date and this would be Argentina’s smallest crop in five years. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 1.8 million tons to 759.5 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China and the United States and greater food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for Russia. Continued high domestic corn prices in China are expected to result in further wheat feed use as projected 2020/21 wheat feed consumption is raised 1.0 million tons to 25.0 million, up 32 percent from last year. Russia’s FSI consumption is raised 500,000 tons to 23.5 million with greater supplies.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol, smaller feed and residual use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.182 billion bushels, down 324 million on a lower yield and slight reduction in harvested area.
Total corn use is down 250 million bushels to 14.575 billion. Exports are down 100 million bushels, reflecting sharply lower supplies and higher expected prices. Corn used for ethanol is lowered, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production during December as indicated by the Energy Information Administration. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.650 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised to $4.20 per bushel.
Sorghum production is estimated 2 million bushels higher as increased harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels on lower sorghum used for ethanol. Exports are raised 15 million bushels reflecting larger exports to China.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 9.3 million tons to 1,438.5 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is reduced with declines for Argentina and Brazil more than offsetting increases for China and India. For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is estimated at 122.4 million tons, down 1.25 million from the previous report. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by an increase for canola and sunflower seed. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas. Harvested area is estimated at 82.3 million acres, up slightly from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels. With higher imports and slightly higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are down 14 million bushels from last month.
The soybean crush forecast is raised 5 million bushels to 2.2 billion, reflecting improved prospects for soybean meal exports with a lower export forecast for Argentina. The soybean export forecast is raised 30 million to a record 2.23 billion bushels. With lower supplies and increased use, ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, down 35 million from the previous forecast.
Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $11.15 per bushel, up 60 cents as cash prices in Central Illinois reach 6-year highs. The soybean meal price is projected at $390 per short ton, up 20 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 38.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents.
Foreign 2020/21 oilseed production is relatively unchanged, with higher sunflower seed mostly offset by lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and palm kernel output. Sunflower seed production is increased 0.5 million tons to 13.5 million for Russia based on recent government estimates. Soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 0.2 million to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January. Mostly offsetting lower South American soybean production is a 2.1-million-ton increase to 19.6 million for China on recent government data. Global soybean stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 84.3 million, with lower stocks for Argentina and the United States that are partly offset by higher stocks for China.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2020 total red meat and poultry production estimate is reduced from last month. The beef production estimate is reduced on lower cattle slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced as the slower pace of slaughter in late 2020 more than offset heavier carcass weights. The broiler production estimate is reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data, while the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data. The egg production estimate is unchanged.
For 2021, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month as lower expected beef, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets higher pork production. Lower expected placements in late 2020 will impact fed cattle supplies in mid2021. Cattle carcass weights are forecast lighter for 2021. USDA will release its semiannual Cattle report on January 29, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2021.
The pork production forecast for 2021 is raised from the previous month as higher expected hog slaughter more than offsets lighter expected carcass weights. Broiler, turkey, and egg production forecasts are lowered for 2021 as higher feed costs are expected to slow production growth.
The beef import estimate for 2020 is reduced on recent trade data while the 2021 import forecast is reduced primarily due to lower expected imports from Australia. Beef exports for 2020 and 2021 are raised from last month. Pork exports for 2020 and 2021 are lowered from last month on weaker import demand from key trading partners. The 2020 broiler export estimate is raised on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2021 export forecast.
Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2020 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2021, cattle prices are raised on a lower production forecast. The 2021 hog price forecast is raised, reflecting strong domestic demand. Broiler prices are raised as lower forecast production in the second half of the year is expected to support firmer prices.
Mike Zuzolo breaks the report down here:
Seven months into the 2020-2021 marketing year, USDA forecasts total wheat exports will reach 26.8 million metric tons which, if realized, would be two percent higher than the previous year.
U.S. Wheat Dot Org says that number would also be seven percent higher than the five-year average. As of December 24, U.S wheat commercial sales were nine percent ahead of last year’s pace at 20.6 million metric tons, led by hard red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, and white wheat (soft and hard). Total hard red winter wheat sales of 7.1 million metric tons are three percent ahead of last year and seven percent above the five-year average.
Significantly increased exports to Nigeria and China offset reduced sales to Mexico, typically the largest market for hard red winter wheat. Total hard red spring wheat sales of 5.78 MMT are nine percent ahead of last year and four percent ahead of the five-year average. HRS sales to the Philippines and Japan are up five and six percent, respectively.
Total white wheat sales, represented mainly by soft white wheat, are 47 percent ahead of the previous year’s pace at 5.52 MMT and 49 percent of the five-year average.
- Nice day in beans
- Corn hits $5
- Different dynamics between corn & beans
- How is wheat faring
- Next Tuesday is a pivotal day. Money flow & momentum
The first overnight trading session of 2021 was on fire for the grains. Unfortunately the day trade brought a cooling to the market with grains ending the day mixed. Sue Martin with Ag and Investment joined the Fontanelle Final Bell on Monday to highlight some of the reasons why there may have been pull back after the strong overnight session. At the top of the list it may have simply been profit it taking with overnight traders running the corn market to nearly $5 and soybean market to $13.50.
Martin is also closely watching the weather and labor situations in South America. Temps in Argentina and Brazil continue to be hot and dry, but some area’s have seen mixed precipitation. As for the labor side the port strike may not actually be over in Argentina. Martin will be watching the loading of ready ships to see if that offers any idea of where labor stands in Argentine ports.
You can catch the full episode here:
The newest grain export sales report from the USDA for the week ending on December 24 shows that 2020 is ending on a positive note.
Soybean export sales for the 2020-2021 crop surpassed analyst expectations. The trade was looking for sales ranging between 7–25 million bushels. However, the new figure passed those estimates as sales jumped 74 percent from the previous week to 33.7 million bushels. Export sales cancellations also rose 23 percent to 7.9 million bushels. However, a Farm Futures article says that’s not surprising because a recent run-up in the price of soybeans likely caused some price resistance among smaller buyers.
Weekly export sales for 2020-2021 corn also surpassed market expectations in last week’s report. Forecasters were looking in a range of 19-39 million bushels, but USDA reported a 55 percent increase in week-over-week sales to 43.1 million bushels. Rallying corn prices caused cancellations to increase to 5.1 million bushels.
Wheat sales weren’t as strong as those of corn and soybeans. However, they were strong because of a weaker dollar and limited exportable supplies in the Black Sea region. The weekly total was up one-third from the previous week to 19.2 million bushels.
Global grain stocks will likely be about 1.5 percent higher than last year, reversing the downward trend over the prior few years. Despite the rise in global supplies, USDA forecasts higher corn, wheat, and barley prices than in the 2019-2020 marketing year.
The average corn price is projected at four dollars a bushel, compared to $3.85 the prior year. The average wheat price is forecast at $4.80 a bushel, up from $4.60 in the previous marketing year. The average barley price is projected to be $4.75 a bushel, up five cents a bushel from last year. Feed, food, and export markets for corn are all promising for 2021. U.S. corn exports were up 49 percent in 2020 to 67.3 million metric tons, a huge boon to marketers and growers.
On the corn import side, demand by the top seven importers was up nine percent this year, compared to a decline in 2019. Imports of corn jumped by 71 percent, which the Capital Press article says, “Definitely tells the story.” China also played a big role in wheat markets, with their imports up 48.7 percent. Demand for wheat by the five biggest importers was up five percent this year, compared to a two percent increase in 2019.
- Wheat had a huge drop
- Some renewed export opportunities for soybeans
- Look at country basis
- Hogs continue to try to move with no luck
- Reminder we are into the December livestock market
The gap between published potential yields and how many bushels go in the hopper is a function of environment and management. Kansas wheat farmers cannot control the weather, but K-State researchers are tackling what strategies farmers can realistically use to both maximize yield and make a profit.
“There is a huge investment in wheat breeding and genetics in Kansas, and the yield potential of those varieties is much higher than what the majority of growers are producing,” said Romulo Lollato, a wheat production specialist with K-State Research and Extension. “So how do we fill that gap? That’s agronomy.”
Now in its sixth year, the Kansas Yield-Enhancing Strategies project — funded with support from the Kansas Wheat Commission — aims to identify which combination of management practices makes the most agronomic and economic sense to improve yields and quality.
The project started in 2015 with a “kitchen sink” approach. Lollato and his team went into the literature and identified 14 different management practices — from seeding rate to fungicide treatments to nitrogen application and many more — and put them to work in the field. In three locations and over two years, researchers tested out each practice on its own and combined together in one massive management system.
“On one end, we had very low input,” Lollato said. “On the other end, we had an extreme high input, where we essentially put everything down that could make the crop yield more. And then we had a lot of treatments in between where we tested each of those practices individually.”
One result for this phase of the project was the importance of fungicide application in wet years. In the two harvests during this phase, fungicide application had a very large impact — 15 to 20 bushels per acre in yield gain — due to an increase in stripe rust in years with ample moisture and high yield potential, such as 2016 and 2017.
Researchers then took that data and expanded the project in 2017 to include four varieties. The project also shifted to layering practices up one-by-one from a low input management system all the way back up to the kitchen sink, testing out which combination of practices had the best results. One interesting finding from this phase was to see some varieties were actually well suited to low-management systems, while others were racehorses that were very responsive to more resources.
Both of these phases of the project were replicated trials, meaning they could provide clear cause-and-effect answers for the results. The next phase, however, involved learning directly from farmers how they are managing their wheat fields. A survey of 20-30 questions about management was distributed to farmers for them to provide input on a single field and how it was managed. The end result was a database of 700 commercial fields with complete information from planting date to final yields. This data allowed researchers to characterize how the average Kansas wheat grower is managing his or her wheat fields and identify management practices associated with higher yields in commercial fields. For instance, researchers identified the optimal sowing date for each growing region in the state and the associated yield penalty per day due to delays in sowing date.
Based on this snapshot, the researchers are now taking the most common practices back into field trials, divided into the bottom 20 percent, average, top 20 percent and top five percent. Now the team is investigating how these different management systems will perform, as well as if they will break even or generate a profit.
These trials are already yielding results. Stand counts show a visible difference between the management systems tested, and researchers will continue to evaluate the trials in the ground as the crop matures next spring.
The combination of these years of work will be even better recommendations for growers to follow to capitalize on the yield potential of the excellent wheat varieties available to Kansas farmers.
“By the Kansas Wheat Commission funding agronomic research, it is getting farmer dollars invested back into the farm,” Lollato said. “The type of information we are developing is really applied and gives value back to the growers by helping them better manage their crops.”Julia Debes for Kansas Wheat