Tag Archives: wheat

 

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Tuesday released its annual Planting Intentions and quarterly March 1 Grain Stocks reports.

Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s Grain Stocks report was bullish for corn, and neutral for soybeans and wheat. USDA’s planting intentions are bearish for new-crop corn, bullish for new-crop soybeans and neutral for new-crop wheat.

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS

USDA expects farmers to plant 97 million acres to corn, above the range of pre-report expectations. If realized, it will the highest acreage since 2012. Planted acreage is expected to be higher than last year in 38 or the 48 reporting states. USDA surveyed farmers in the first two weeks of March, during which Saudi Arabia and Russia’s oil dispute shook global markets including ethanol.

Soybean acreage is estimated at 83.5 million acres, toward the low end of pre-report expectations. Compared to last year, planting intentions are up or unchanged in 22 or the 29 reporting states, with large increases anticipated in Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio and South Dakota.

All wheat acreage is estimated at 44.7 million acres, 1% below last year’s levels and the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1919. Winter wheat area, at 30.8 million acres is down from last year but even with pre-report expectations. Of that total, 21.7 ma will be planted to hard red winter, 5.69 to soft red winter, 3.42 ma to white winter. Spring wheat acreage is expected to decline 1% from last year to 12.6 million acres.

All cotton area is estimated at 13.7 ma, down less than 1% from last year.

USDA MARCH 1 GRAIN STOCKS

CORN

Corn stocks on March 1 totaled 7.95 billion bushels (bb), down 8% from stocks a year ago and lower than the average pre-report analyst estimates. Of those corn stocks, farmers were holding 4.45 bb on the farm, which is 13% lower than a year ago. Off-farm stocks were at 3.5 bb, up just slightly from the same period in 2019.

Disappearance, or use, from December 2019 to February 2020 was 3.45 bb, compared to 3.32 bb for the same period last year.

SOYBEANS

As of March 1, soybean grain stocks were pegged at 2.25 bb, down 17% from last year and within the range analysts expected. Of those, USDA estimated 1.01 bb were stored on farm, down 20% from last year, and 1.24 bbwere stored off-farm, down 15% from last year.

The agency estimated that soybean usage for this past quarter (December 2019-February 2020) totaled 1 bb, down 1% from the same time period last year.

WHEAT

Total wheat stocks were estimated at 1.41 bb on March 1, down 11% from a year ago and within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates. On-farm stocks were pegged at 339 million bushels (mb), down 8% from last year, while off-farm stocks came in at 1.07 bb, down 12% from last year.

Usage from December 2019 through February 2020 was estimated at 428 mb, 3% up from the same period last year.

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
3/1/20 Avg High Low 12/1/19 3/1/19
Corn 7,953 8,162 8,492 7,892 11,389 8,613
Soybeans 2,253 2,237 2,701 2,075 3,252 2,727
Wheat 1,412 1,437 1,572 1,385 1,834 1,593
PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS
ACREAGE (million acres) USDA USDA
3/31/19 Avg High Low 2018-19 3/29/19
Corn 97.0 94.3 96.4 92.5 89.7 92.8
Soybeans 83.5 84.7 87.0 82.7 76.1 84.6
Cotton 13.7 13.8
Grain Sorghum 5.8 5.1
All Wheat 44.7 44.9 46.0 42.3 45.2 45.8
Winter 30.8 30.8 31.7 30.1 31.2 31.5
Spring 12.6 12.6 13.4 12.0 12.7 12.8
Durum 1.3 1.5 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.4

Market chatter is still about COVID-19, Wheat bounced backwards today, a breather was expected.  Ethanol markets does not feel good. Are we going to see a dump in corn?  Will quarterly stocks or planting intentions help the market?  Will next week’s reports set the tone?   Cattle have been giving back a bit.

 

It’s an off day in the market trade…except for the wheat market that has been on fire.  Corn did have a bounce in recovery.  Meat & wheat going hand in hand.  Ethanol might have a part in that.  Soybeans are confused.  The meal market and demand are a big part of it.  Aid for farmers coming from DC.  Weather concerns in South America.

 

Light selling in the wheat…how did that effect the corn trade?  Oil & ethanol concerns.  How soon will we be back to normal? Planting intentions report due out at months end.  Could we see increase in unplanted acres?  Corn/bean ratio and what are we seeing in the basis?  Cattle market on expanded limits, one needs the other.  Is Tyson’s announcement effecting the markets?

 

It was a good market day with positive Ag markets.  Stock market wasn’t the best, Dow down.  Double digit increases in soybeans & Chicago/KC wheat.  Sue looks at the money leaving the stock market on rallies.  Money will find safety.  Ag could see a good return on their investment.  Packers are offering certain bids…but a bill in the house will focus on bottom prices for cattle to be purchased.  Will we see decreased numbers in next cold storage report?  Thoughts on the planting intentions report while looking at some new grain movement issues out of South America.

 

 

Dow drops again. It’s hard to ignore what is going on in the ethanol market. BUT there are several positives in the market trade. Rumors that China is buying wheat. Wouldn’t take much to flip the balance sheet. DDGs another long term positive. Farmers can lock in some interest rates on their loans, lock in fuel needs, could see a reduction in input costs for this year’s crop. Cattle has been something else of late. But there are some encouraging signs coming from the trade. Strong product demand.

Another down day…grains, livestock & stocks.  A lot of fear factor being built in.  Crude oil continues to fall…explain in relation to corn.  March 10th USDA WASDE Report.  Soft export market continues.  Chicago wheat the only market to see some positive trade numbers.  Feeder cattle lock down & struggle …following the equities as they follow what happens in the Coronavirus news.  Seen some solid demand in the hogs…but there is a lot of supply out there.

Lincoln, Nebraska, March 5, 2020 — New research from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln has led to the discovery of a novel gene that improves drought adaptation in wheat — a breakthrough that could contribute to increased world food security.

In new research published in Plant Biotechnology Journal, Harkamal Walia, associate professor and Heuermann Chair of Agronomy and Horticulture at Nebraska, and colleagues describe a novel form of a gene obtained from wild wheat that has the potential to improve drought tolerance in cultivated wheat. Introducing this gene into cultivated wheat improved the plant root structure so that it continued to grow in search of water under dry soil conditions.

Wheat is the most widely grown crop in the world and, together with rice, provides more than 50% of the caloric intake of humans globally. Like other crops, wheat is exposed to a wide range of environmental limitations, such as high temperature, disease pressure and drought.

The scavenging nature of wheat root systems during times of drought may have been lost when wild wheats were adopted for agriculture by early humans or as cultivated wheat was bred for improved responsiveness to irrigation and fertilizers during the mid-1900s. This improved responsiveness was key to feeding a booming world population during the 1960s.

As today’s producers strive for “more crop per drop” to feed a world population that is again in the midst of a boom and is expected to grow from about 7.5 billion today to more than 9.6 billion by 2050, it is evident that future crops will need greater drought resilience. The discovery by Walia and his colleagues could represent an important new genetic resource, enabling breeders to recapture this natural survival trait in cultivated wheat. The University of Nebraska–Lincoln has secured a patent on the discovery via NUtech Ventures, enabling future commercialization of this technology.

The potential impact of the discovery grew substantially when the team found that adding the wild root gene also resulted in plants with larger grains in the absence of drought. Walia and his team were not expecting this, as introducing tolerance to a stress can sometimes result in lost productivity when the stress is absent.

“This particular trait may have the opposite effect, which is a benefit in both conditions,” Walia said. “We are now working to understand the reason behind this surprising finding.”

The genetic engineering of wheat plants was performed at Nebraska’s Center for Biotechnology.

Walia is one of many researchers worldwide helping to develop a catalog of genes that will contribute to creating more robust plants for the future. Drought response is a complicated trait, Walia said, which involves many genes contributing to survival and productivity when water is limited. He hopes that research in this area will continue to discover new genetic resources that plant breeders and geneticists can use to develop more drought-tolerant crops.

“From a genetic improvement perspective, it takes a community to make a crop more adaptive,” Walia said. “This finding is one piece of a very large puzzle.”

The research was spearheaded by doctoral students Dante Placido and Jaspreet Sandhu in the Department of Agronomy and Horticulture. The work was supported by the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources and the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute

Grains were able to close in the green on Tuesday. Livestock were mixed with lean hogs higher, live and feeder cattle lower. Brian Splitt, Ag Market.Net, looks at the reasons why grains were insulated from the outside market sell off. Part of the reason being traders are hesitant to build short positions given the fact Chinese importers now have tariff exemptions that may prompt buying anytime.

Splitt also looks at the current market cycle and how previous contracts have acted just ahead of a WASDE report. That may be why it’s a good time to consider marketing some grain on the farm.

Listen to Splitt’s full comments right here:

Monday’s grains rallied into the close with the exception Chicago wheat. Troy Nielson of Smart Yield joins the Fontanelle Final Bell to discuss why we may have seen such a rally following last week’s sell off. Over the weekend China was suppose to start issuing tariff waivers for US products and commodities. Traders will be eagerly awaiting print from USDA that China is in the market to buy.

Nielson also touches on the importance of forming a marketing plan for the farm. Nielson calls March the month to get a plan in place with targets ready if the market rallies during planting or the growing season. Hear his full comments below.