Tag Archives: WASDE

USDA on Tuesday boosted exports for soybeans 50 million bushels (mb) but lowered corn exports 50 mb, despite high sales expectations because of recent trade deals.

USDA increased its forecast for soybean exports by 50 mb to 1.825 billion bushels (bb). Ending stocks, at 425 mb, declined from last month by a corresponding amount and fell within the range of pre-report expectations.

Corn exports were projected at 1.725 bb, down 50 mb from January.

USDA did bump up wheat exports up 25 mb from the January report, to 1 bb

USDA released its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday as well as its monthly Crop Production report. Traders were closely watching just how USDA might integrate projected exports to China for a few key commodities following the announcement last month of the phase-one trade deal with China that is meant, in part, to boost U.S. agricultural sales to China.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and slightly bullish for soybeans and wheat; world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, but somewhat bearish for soybeans.

You can access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

The monthly corn production estimate for the 2019-20 crop was projected at 13.69 bb, the same as January, with a national average yield of 168 bushels per acre, also unchanged.

Exports were lowered 50 mb to 1.725 bb with USDA citing “the slow pace of shipments through January.” USDA increased domestic ethanol use by 50 mb as well, increasing use to 5.425 bb for ethanol for the 2019-20 crop.

Total corn use was projected at 14.07 bb, the same as January, and ending stocks were projected at 1.892 bb, also the same as January. That brings the stocks-to-use ration for the 2019-20 crop at 13.4%.

The average farm-gate price for the 2019-20 crop was pegged at $3.85 a bushel, also unchanged for January.

Globally, USDA slightly lowered global production by a fractional number, but increased global domestic demand by 1.81 million metric tons (mmt). Global ending stocks, less China, were dropped by 970,000 metric tons.

The corn stocks-to-use ratio for the 2019-20 crop year was 13.4%, unchanged from last month.

SOYBEANS

USDA forecast 2019-20 domestic ending stocks at 425 mb, a 50 mb decline from last month based on forecasts for corresponding increase in exports. The agency left production and other demand forecasts unchanged.

The national average farm gate price was lowered by a quarter to $8.75 per bushel.

Globally, USDA revised ending stocks upwards to 98.86 mmt a 2.19 mmt increase. Brazilian production forecasts climbed by 2 mmt to 125 mmt while Argentine production was left unchanged at 53 mmt.

Domestic soybean stocks-to-use for 2019-20 declined to 10.5% from last month’s 11.8% estimate.

WHEAT

Domestic 2019-20 wheat ending stocks were trimmed by 25 mb to 940 mb, a five-year low that came within analysts’ pre-report expectations. That change was driven entirely by an increase of 25 mb in wheat exports, from 975 mb in January to 1 bb in the February report. The agency cited “growing competitiveness in international markets” for that adjustment.

The average farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $4.55 per bushel, unchanged from the January report.

USDA tweaked global ending stocks to 288.03 mmt, just under last month’s estimate of 288.08 mmt and within analysts’ pre-report estimates.

Australian wheat production was left unchanged from the January estimate of 15.6 mmt, despite widespread fires and drought in the country. USDA also left Russian wheat exports at 34 mmt, despite reports that the Russian government would soon restrict exports.

Wheat stocks-to-use declined by 1.7 percentage points to 43.4%.

WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2019-20
Feb Avg High Low Jan
CORN
Argentina 50.0 49.8 51.0 48.0 50.0
Brazil 101.0 100.8 101.0 99.0 101.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 53.0 53.1 54.0 52.5 53.0
Brazil 125.0 123.8 125.0 122.5 123.0
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Feb Avg High Low Jan 2018-19
Corn 1,892 1,856 2,017 1,667 1,892 2,221
Soybeans 424 448 586 320 475 909
Wheat 940 953 999 900 965 1,080
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20
Feb Avg High Low Jan 2018-19
Corn 296.8 297.5 299.5 295.0 297.8 320.4
Soybeans 98.9 97.2 102.9 94.2 96.7 110.3
Wheat 288.0 287.2 288.8 280.0 288.1 278.1

USDA WASDE Report.  Nothing friendly on the grain report.  Unicorn type of day!  Brad explains.  How do the basis numbers look?  Ethanol/DDG’s & China.    Cattle prices were higher with the hopes that the cash would see some higher Friday trade numbers.  Macro’s for the cattle not great.  Middle of a big fund role.  Negative side of the market is the cut-out value-cutting back on Saturday kills.  No real threat in the weather-does that make you nervous?  Hogs still caught in the same trading range.

 

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Friday bumped up corn yield and soybean production while showing overall lower quarterly stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat from the same period a year ago.

Corn production was forecast at 13.69 billion bushels (bb) with a national average yield of 168 bushels per acre (bpa), 1 bpa higher than last month’s forecast.

USDA increased final 2019 soybean production to 3.558 bb, up from 3.550 bb in the December report, a surprise to analysts who expected to see the effects of the historically challenging production season continue to ripple through the country’s soybean supplies.

Corn quarterly stocks were down 5% from the same time last year while soybean stocks were down 13% from the same period last year.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and wheat; the 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat; the Grain Stocks report was roughly neutral for corn and soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Farmers planted 30.8 ma to winter wheat this fall, compared to 31.2 ma last year and the average pre-report estimate of 30.7 ma. This represents the second lowest United States acreage on record.

USDA said area seeded to hard red winter wheat is expected to total 21.8 ma, down 3% from 2019.

Soft red winter wheat area, at 5.64 ma, is up 8% from last year.

Farmers planted 3.37 million acres to white winter wheat, a 4% decrease.

In Kansas and Oklahoma, USDA said farmers planted 27,000 acres to canola, 58% below last year. If realized, planted acreages in both states would represent a new record low.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CROP PRODUCTION

Corn:

USDA forecast corn production at 13.69 bb with a national average yield of 168 bpa, 1 bpa higher than last month’s forecast.

The agency lowered its harvested acreage estimate by about 300,000 acres, which offset some of the increased production from a slightly higher average yield. The 13.69 bb production forecast is up 31 mb from last month’s estimate and at the high end of pre-report expectations.

USDA’s estimate of a 3.558-bb soybean crop for 2019 is a 20% drop from 2018’s crop of 4.428 bb.

Soybeans:

To reach its 2019 estimate, USDA adjusted the 2019 average soybean yield up half a bushel from the December report to 47.4 bpa, based on increases in Illinois and Indiana. Despite the slight jump upward, that average yield still stands 3.2 bushels below the 2018 crop.

Harvested acres were adjusted down 600,000 acres from the December report to 75 ma, down 14% from last year, with the largest decreases coming from the Dakotas.

WASDE

Corn:

Domestic ending stocks for the 2019-20 crop year declined 18 bb from last month’s forecast to 1.89 bb, but the agency made some fairly large changes in its forecast for use. USDA increased its forecast for feed and residual use by 250 mb, which it said was based on its latest estimates from the Grain Stocks report. USDA cut the corn export forecast by 75 mb and food, seed and industrial use by 20 mb. The national average farm gate price was unchanged from last month at $3.85 per bushel.

Globally, ending stocks for 2019-20 declined to 297.8 million metric tons (mmt), a 2.75 mmt decline from last month that was in line with the analysts’ forecast.

Soybeans:

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2019-20 were left at 475 mb in the January report. The agency left supply and demand almost completely untouched from December, only dropping beginning stocks to 909 mb, boosting production slightly and cutting imports by 5 mb.

The average U.S. soybean farmgate price was increased 15 cents to 9 dollars per bushel, reflecting stronger soybean oil prices.

Globally, USDA left South American soybean production untouched, with Brazil’s estimate at 123 mmt and Argentina’s 53 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 96.7 mmt, a slight upward adjustment from December’s estimate of 96.4 mmt. Major changes in supply/demand.

Wheat:

USDA forecast 2019-20 domestic ending stocks for wheat at 965 mb, a 9 mb decline from last month’s estimate. The change was due to a 10 mb increase in feed and residual use and a 1 mb decline in use for seed. The national average farm gate price was $4.55 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Globally, USDA revised ending stocks down by 1.42 mmt. USDA lowered foreign production in Russia by 1 mmt and in Australia 0.5 mmt. It also raised production forecasts for the European Union by 0.5 mmt.

QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS

Quarterly “disappearance” or usage for soybeans and wheat were both higher from the same period last year running from September to November while corn usage was down slightly.

Corn disappearance was pegged at 4.52 bb, down just slightly from 4.54 bb over the same quarter last year. Corn stored from September to November totaled 11.4 bb, down 5% from the same period last year and right in line with the average pre-report estimates. Of total stocks, USDA reported 7.18 bb on the farm, down 4% from the same period last year. Off-farm stocks was pegged at 4.21 bb, down 6% from a year ago. On-farm storage in states such as North and South Dakota may be a little misleading because of unharvested acres, which USDA still brands as being stored on the farm.

Soybean usage from September to November amounted to 1.22 bb, up 8% from the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 3.25 bb, slightly above the pre-report average from analysts and down 13% from the same period last year.

On-farm storage was pegged at 1.53 bb, down 21% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were reported at 1.73 bb, down 5% from last year.

Wheat usage for the quarter was pegged at 512 million bushels (mb), up 35% from the same period last year. All-wheat stored on Dec. 1 totaled 1.83 bb, lower than the pre-report average estimate and 9% below last year’s stored crop. Off-farm stocks were listed at 1.31 bb, down 13% from last year. On-farm stocks were estimated at 519 mb, up 3% from last year.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Farmers planted 30.8 ma to winter wheat this fall, compared to 31.2 ma last year and the average pre-report estimate of 30.7 ma. This represents the second lowest United States acreage on record.

USDA said area seeded to hard red winter wheat is expected to total 21.8 ma, down 3% from 2019.

Soft red winter wheat area, at 5.64 ma, is up 8% from last year.

Farmers planted 3.37 million acres to white winter wheat, a 4% decrease.

In Kansas and Oklahoma, USDA said farmers planted 27,000 acres to canola, 58% below last year. If realized, planted acreages in both states would represent a new record low.