Tag Archives: WASDE

  • WASDE report
  • Weather in the U.S. & South America
  • Chinese purchases overnight
  • Report did more for corn then for beans
  • Hurricane Delta
  • Hold beans/corn
  • Is there a worry that producers sold to soon on the grain?
  • Weather pattern change to the dryer side

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Friday released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bullish for soybeans, while the world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

SOYBEANS

USDA lowered soybean ending stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year to 290 million bushels, a 170 mb decline from September that was just slightly above the lowest pre-report estimate. USDA trimmed production forecasts by 45 mb, lowered beginning stocks by 52 mb and increased exports by 75 mb.

CORN

Old-crop corn ending stocks for 2019-20 were dropped 258 mb to 1.995 bb. With those lower beginning stocks, USDA also ended with lower corn ending stocks for 2020-21, which USDA dropped 336 mb to 2.167 bb. Production was pegged at 14.722 bb, down 178 mb from the September report.

Corn yields were adjusted ever so slightly to 178.4 bushels per acre, down from 178.5 million bushels in last month’s report. Harvest acres were also cut by 1 million acres down to 82.5 million acres.

For crop demand, USDA lowered feed and residual use by 50 mb to 6.475 bb. Ethanol demand was also lowered by 50 mb to 5.05 bb. Export demand was held at 2.325 bb, the same as September.

Total use was pegged at 14.575 bb, a 100 mb drop from the September report. With ending stocks at 2.167 bb, that dropped the stocks-to-use ratio for corn down to 14.8%, compared to 17% just a month ago.

The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was pegged at $3.60 a bushel, a dime above last month’s estimate.

Globally, USDA also lowered beginning stocks 4.91 million metric tons (mmt) and lowered global production 3.56 billion bushels as well. Exports were lowered 1.56 mmt as well. Collectively, that dropped the global ending stocks down 6.34 mmt for September to 300.45 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

USDA increased expected beef supply projections to 27.2 billion pounds, an increase of 90 million pounds from September estimates. Total use of beef is expected to increase by 255 million pounds during the month of October to 27.7 billion pounds. Pork supplies are estimated to decrease 80 million pounds during the month of October to 28.2 billon pounds. Export expectations of pork decreased by 200 million pounds in the October estimate at 7.3 billion pounds, moving total use to 21.8 billion pounds, based on increased domestic disappearance in the market. Estimated steer prices increased to $108.71 per cwt compared to September projections of $107.3 per cwt. Barrow and gilt prices posted the most significant projected price increase moving to $43.25 per cwt in Octobers estimate from September’s target of $39.40 per cwt.

Grains have rallied for the first two week’s of October and most analyst estimates ahead of the October WASDE report on Friday look to support that bullish momentum.

Pre-report estimates from analyst show the average yield for corn to drop from 178.5 bu/ac to 177.6 bu/ac. Shrinking the total harvest from 14.9 billion bu to 14.801 billion bu. That is a sizeable increase from the 2019 harvest of 13.617  billion bu. Analyst also expect the average soybean yield to drop from 51.9 bu/ac to 51.7 bu/ac. That small drop decreases the overall soybean harvest size from 4.313 billion bu to 4.292 billion bu. Just like corn this harvest is substantially higher than last year’s soybean harvest of 3.552 billion bu.

US Corn & Soybean Production 2020 Millions of Bushels October Average Range USDA September USDA 2019
Corn 14,801 14,638-14,963 14,900 13,617
avg. yield 177.6 175.4-179.2 178.5 167.4
Harvested Acres 83 82.7-83.5 84 81
Soybeans 4,292 4,249-4,358 4,313 3,552
avg yield 51.7 51.2-52.5 51.9 47.4
Harvested Acres 82.9 82.5-83 83 75
US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels October Average Range USDA September
Corn 2,130 1,882-2,333 2,503
Soybeans 360 285-436 460
Wheat 889 835-915 925
US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels October Average Range USDA September
Corn 2,439 2,152-2,697 2,756
Soybeans 461 379-576 610
Wheat 926 900-948 925
World Stockpiles 20-21 Million Metric Tons October Average Range USDA September
Corn 299.7 295.5-305 306.8
Soybeans 90.9 88.1-93.1 93.6
Wheat 316.9 310.9-319 319.4
  • Chance for more rain in South America…really not a make or break
  • WASDE report out on Friday
  • Crop Progress report
  • Export sales holding strong
  • Ethanol has some support taking place
  • Dollar trade & grains
  • Cash cattle is hanging in there
  • Lack of momentum in the feeder cattle
  • Seeing a lot of cattle coming off grass
  • Hogs keep pushing to the upside