Cattle market makes another day of new highs except for December. Will this strong trade continue? Firmer cash market last week. Rumors we might see the Holcomb KS plant open earlier. Average weights are above a year ago. Lower grain markets. Year ago today March Corn 2nd largest crop…but still at the same price today. How much did the USDA WASDE glitch effect the markets?
WASDE report. How valid were some of the results in Re-surveying North & South Dakota Harvest weather going into next week. Open interest in the cattle-could we see some buying & is there in a top going in. Planting progress in South America.
OMAHA (DTN) — USDA expects the nation’s corn farmers to harvest 13.67 billion bushels (bb) of corn this year, pulling in a national average yield of 167 bushels per acre (bpa). That’s a decline of 100 million bushels (mb) and 1.4 bpa from last month, respectively, and within the range of pre-report expectations.
Soybean production, at 3.55 bb, was down slightly from last month, with the national average yield estimate 46.9 bpa, unchanged from last month.
Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, slightly bearish for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat, while the 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bearish for wheat.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
With the national average yield at 167 bpa and corn production at 13.66 bb, USDA’s supply forecast declined correspondingly, but the 2019-20 ending stocks did not.
For the 2019-20 marketing year, USDA pegged domestic ending stocks at 1.91 bb, down from 19.3 bb last month. USDA lowered its forecast for use in the feed and residual and ethanol categories by 25 mb each while cutting its export forecast by 50 mb.
The national average farm gate price increased a nickel to $3.85.
The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio was 13.7%, down from last season’s 14.6%.
Global ending stocks for 2019-20 declined to 296 million metric tons, down 6.5 mmt, due to lower production forecasts.
U.S. soybean production was pegged 3.55 bb, the same as the October report and down 880 mb from 2018’s production of 4.43 bb.
Yield also held pat for soybeans at 46.9 bpa. Soybean yields for the year are about 4 bushels below 2018’s yield of 50.6 bpa. Harvested acres were held pat at 75.6 million acres as well, the same as the October report.
USDA did raise 2019-20 ending stocks by 15 mb to 475 mb for the November estimate. That compares to the 913 mb carryover from the 2018-19 soybean crop.
To increase stocks by 15 mb, USDA lowered domestic crush by 15 mb, going to 2.105 bb. Export estimates held at 1.775 bb, the same as October.
Soybean prices are projected at $9 a bushel, the same as last month.
Global soybean production for 2019-20 was pegged at 336.56 million metric tons (12.37 billion bushels), compared to 338.97 mmt (12.46 bb) in October. Global ending stocks were pegged at 95.42 mmt (3.5 bb), up slightly from the October projection of 95.21 mmt.
With South America still in the midst of planting season, Brazil’s projected production remained at 123 mmt (4.5 bb) and Argentina’s production remained at 53 mmt (1.95 bb).
The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for the 2019-20 marketing year was 11.8%, up slightly from last month.
USDA forecast domestic wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 at 1.013 bb, down from last month’s 1.044 bb estimate and within the range of pre-report expectations.
All-wheat production, at 1.92 bb, was unchanged from last month following a revision to spring wheat production. Spring wheat production is forecast at 562.38 mb, down from 623.23 mb from 2018.
USDA also cut the national average farm-gate prices for wheat from $4.70 per bushel to $4.60.
Global ending stocks for 2019-20 of 288.28 mmt was up from last month and was above the range of pre-report expectations.
USDA left unchanged China’s production for 2019-20 132 mmt.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio for wheat was 48.1%, down from last month’s 49.3%.
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)|
|U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2019-20|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|
A USDA official said earlier this week that the U.S. hemp industry could have a producer-funded checkoff program coming soon. The Agricultural Marketing Service’s Director of the Specialty Crops Programs’ Promotion and Economics Division spoke at the Hemp Industries Association’s annual conference.
Hemp Industry Daily notes that the director said the hemp industry “clearly has shown interest” in paying fees to promote their product, saying that “the idea here is that a rising tide would lift every boat.” If a checkoff program comes to fruition, hemp would join 21 other crops that have their own checkoffs, including soybeans, cotton, milk, pork, watermelon, and even popcorn. Growers would pay mandatory fees to go into a fund that’s used for research and marketing.
A checkoff would benefit the emerging hemp industry struggling to get out from under marijuana-related misconceptions. A checkoff program would also be seen as an endorsement from USDA, making hemp a legitimate crop with long-term potential.
Thousands of farmers took the plunge into hemp production after the 2018 farm bill legalized production of the plant. That flood of new growers is why some hemp farmers are struggling to find markets for their first post-farm bill harvest. Despite increasing demand for hemp-related products, the rush of new growers appears to have driven down prices.
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced the “OneUSDA Internship” opportunity for Summer 2020. As part of the Federal Pathways Program, the OneUSDA Internship Program will provide students a way to explore serving their country through a career in government while gaining work experience in agriculture, natural resources, rural development, and other career fields.
“Our goal at USDA is to recruit the best and retain the best through our OneUSDA Internship Program offered nationwide,” said Secretary Perdue. “Today’s young people are the future of America and there are few things more American than agriculture. We’re aiming to find young talent, with a diverse background, across all 50 states, to begin their careers as interns with USDA.”
The OneUSDA Internship Program offers Federal opportunities to students currently enrolled in qualifying educational programs or institutions, with a comprehensive developmental program intended to provide students with experience in a dynamic work environment that will enhance their educational goals and shape their career choices. An internship with USDA will involve various components of on-the-job experience, mentorship, and training tailored to the student’s education, experience, and interests.
During 2019, USDA was proud to host thousands of interns throughout the country, many of which were through the Federal Pathways Program. In the Summer of 2020, USDA will hire Pathways Interns in hundreds of locations in nearly every state in the country for the following occupational fields:
- Veterinary Science
- Biological Sciences (e.g., natural resources management forestry, wildlife biology, fish biology, ecology, botany, rangeland management, recreation)
- Engineering & Architecture
- Agribusiness, Contracting, Procurement, and Industry
- General Administration and Office Support
- Financial Management
- Information Technology
USDA is making sure the Summer 2020 OneUSDA internship job announcement is easier-than-ever for students to find and apply for. After choosing the geographic location of preference and the career path that best matches with student’s area of study and professional aspirations at http://www.usda.gov/Internships, students simply follow the weblinks to https://www.usajobs.gov/ to set up an account, then follow the prompts to apply to the internship.
When applying, students will also have an opportunity to indicate their preferred occupational area of interest and USDA Agency or office. The application window will open on November 1st and close on November 15th. Application review will begin immediately
For more information, visit www.USDA.gov/Internships.
The U.S. row-crop harvest remains the slowest it’s been in a decade, according to USDA NASS’ latest Crop Progress report released Monday.
Nationwide, corn harvest progressed 11 percentage points last week to reach 41% as of Sunday, 20 percentage points behind the five-year average of 61% and falling further behind the average pace than the previous week when harvest was 17 percentage points behind the five-year average. The pace of this year’s corn harvest remains the slowest since 2009 when only 20% of corn was harvested as of Oct. 25, said DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.
“North Dakota is just 6% harvested, with South Dakota at 14% and Wisconsin 13% harvested,” Mantini said.
The condition of corn still in fields was rated 58% good to excellent, up 2 percentage points from 56% the previous week. The poor-to-very-poor category declined to just 12% from 14% the previous week.
Soybean harvest moved ahead 16 percentage points last week to reach 62% as of Sunday. That was 16 percentage points behind the five-year average of 78%, a slight improvement from last Monday’s report, when harvest was running 18 percentage points behind average. As with corn, the pace of this year’s soybean harvest remains the slowest since 2009 when 44% of the crop was harvested as of Oct. 25.
While row-crop harvest remained behind the average pace, winter wheat progress stayed near, to slightly ahead of, the average pace last week. As of Sunday, 85% of winter wheat was planted, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 82%. Winter wheat emerged was estimated at 63%, near the five-year average of 64%.
In its first condition rating for the 2020 winter wheat crop, NASS estimated 56% of winter wheat was in good-to-excellent condition, 3 percentage points better than last year’s rating of 53% good to excellent at the same time of year.
Sorghum mature was estimated at 96%, ahead of the average of 94%. Sorghum harvested reached 65%, also ahead of the five-year average of 62%.
Cotton bolls opening was estimated at 95%, ahead of the average of 93%. Cotton harvested was estimated at 46%, also ahead of the five-year average of 43%. Rice harvested was 97%, just slightly behind the average of 98%.
To view weekly crop progress reports visit http://www.nass.usda.gov/
|National Crop Progress Summary|
|Soybeans Dropping Leaves||97||94||100||99|
|Winter Wheat Planted||85||77||77||82|
|Winter Wheat Emerged||63||53||62||64|
|Cotton Bolls Opening||95||93||91||93|
|National Crop Condition Summary|
|(VP = Very Poor; P = Poor; F = Fair; G = Good; E = Excellent)|
|This Week||Last Week||Last Year|
|National Soil Moisture Condition – 48 States|
|(VS = Very Short; SH = Short; AD = Adequate; SR = Surplus)|
|This Week||Last Week||Last Year|
U.S. Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Censky will lead a trade mission to West Africa, October 28-31, to help United States exporters unlock new opportunities in a region where strong economic growth is driving demand for imported food and farm products.
“At USDA we are working to sell the bounty of American agriculture. West Africa is a bright spot with a growing middle class that are hungry for our delicious and wholesome agriculture products,” said Deputy Secretary Censky. “Through this trade mission and other efforts, USDA is proud to support President Trump’s Prosper Africa initiative, which is seeking to boost two-way trade and investment between the United States and Africa. Prosper Africa brings together the full range of U.S. government resources to connect U.S. and African businesses with new buyers, suppliers, and investment opportunities – a win for the United States and for countries across the African continent.”
Deputy Secretary Censky will be joined by Nebraska Department of Agriculture Director Steve Wellman, North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring, officials from the Georgia Department of Agriculture, and representatives from the following companies and organizations:
AFRO Plus Logistics, Bear, Delaware
American Premier Meat, Connersville, Indiana
American Soybean Association/World Initiative for Soy in Human Health, St. Louis, Missouri
Anna Carter’s The Seed Lady, Los Angeles, California
Archer Daniels Midland Company, Chicago, Illinois
Berkeley Capital Group, Inc, New York, New York
Crown Products, Inc, Metairie, Louisiana
CTB, Inc., Milford, Indiana
DAUUS Company, Bloomington, Minnesota
East West International Group, Inc, Moreland, Ohio
Fobrose Group, Houston, Texas
Geotan Enterprises, LLC, Humble, Texas
Ghantex Holdings Limited, Houston, Texas
Global Export Marketing Co. Ltd., New York, New York
Green Plains Inc., Omaha, Nebraska
Growth Energy, Washington, D.C.
Hills Harvest, College Park, Maryland
International Feed Corporation, Excelsior, Minnesota
I.P.P International, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
JBR International Trade Group, Inc., DuPont, Washington
Livestock Exporters Association of the USA, Chicago, Illinois
Marquis Energy, Hennepin, Illinois
Mariani Packing Company, Vacaville, California
National Swine Registry, West Lafayette, Indiana
Neil Jones Food Company, Vancouver, Washington
North Star Food Trading LLC, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Now International, Bloomingdale, Illinois
Oakmont & Associates, Addison, Texas
Perdue Foods, Salisbury, Maryland
Steel City Global Trading, LLC, Enterprise, Alabama
St. Louis African Chamber of Commerce, St. Louis, Missouri
Tam Global Consultants, Portland, Oregon
Tomex Foods, Inc. Lombard, Illinois
Triad Fisheries Ltd, Portland, Oregon
U.S. Livestock Genetics Export, Inc., Mount Horeb, Wisconsin
U.S. Grains Council, Washington, D.C.
U.S. Soybean Export Council, Chesterfield, Missouri
U.S. Wheat Associates, Arlington, Virginia
United Source One, Belcamp, Maryland
Virginia Natural Beef Inc., Lexington, Virginia
Wakava Food and Beverage, LLC, St. Louis, Missouri
Wygold LLC, Woodland, California
The mission will be based in Accra, Ghana, and will also include buyer delegations from Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Nigeria, and Senegal.
Senator Debbie Stabenow Thursday questioned the Department of Agriculture over its categorical eligibility rule proposal for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
USDA this week published an analysis finding the rule would remove nearly one million children from automatic enrollment for free school meals, and 40,000 would no longer be eligible for free meals. During a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on farm bill implementation, Stabenow alleged that USDA “has continued to ignore what we’ve put in the farm bill,” which she says rejected changes to SNAP.
Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Censky says the changes are to ensure “eligibility requirements are being enforced.” Censky cited criticism over USDA’s handling of eligibility by the Government Accountability Office, adding USDA “needs to do a better job” of making sure eligibility requirements are being enforced, and that states are not finding loopholes to increase enrollment. Stabenow says the analysis published this week by USDA, is flawed, adding “I would strongly urge you to reconsider” the proposal. USDA has reopened the comment period for the rule.