Tag Archives: soybeans

Summary

Market Recap 7-14

Equities were able to overcome their concerns from California’s move to put Covid-19 restrictions back in place and moved higher on Tuesday. Earnings week kicked off fairly strong for companies on Wall Street. PepsiCo was a prime example of positive 2nd quarter financials. Snack revenue was able to pick up the slack caused by slumping soda sales. Big banks are also reporting strong 2nd quarter earnings, but they also show that they are keeping billions in reserve for possible loan defaults later on in 2020.

Economic data out on Tuesday showed that the US saw slight inflation in June with the Consumer Price Index coming in at +0.6%. That was just above analyst estimates and well above May’s -0.1%. Inflation is still a long ways from the FED’s target of 2%. Traders prime concern is still how much economic damage will be done if states start to follow California and start to lock down the economy. If other states start to follow California this could quickly swing the markets lower.

The US dollar and precious metals shed some long positions on Tuesday with some of the money flow headed back to the Euro.

Energies were able to take slight advantage of a lower dollar, but are still range bound at $39-$40/barrel on WTI crude. Traders will continue closely watching energy stocks and consumption to see how the rising covid-19 cases are impacting energy demand. OPEC is also warning they will ease production restrictions and increase output by nearly 2 million barrels per day. Helping the energy sector is the US Dollar which is down about 0.25% at the time of this writing.

US China tensions are heating up on Monday. China lashed back at the US with sanctions against several GOP lawmakers who are hawkish on China. This was in response to the US placing sanctions against several key Chinese government officials for human rights violations. Overnight China also retailiated and placed sanctions on Lockheed Martin. Tensions didn’t bother Chinese importers Tuesday mornign. USDA announced the 4th largest flash sale of corn, 1,762,000 MT, to China. This was the largest purchase of corn in a single day since the 1990s according to USDA. The record is still held by the USSR at 3.72 MMT January 9, 1991.  China also purchased 129,000 MT of soybeans. All for delivery in the 2020/2021 marketing year. This has some analysts concerned how China will leverage the large stockpile of grain it has committed to buy from the US for the 20/21 marketing year. Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics addressed this in his midday commentary.

Grains closed  mixed on Tuesday. Corn and KC wheat were lower. Soybeans and Chicago Wheat were higher.  Looking at seasonal patterns corn and soybeans tend to bottom in July. Wheat is typically a month ahead of that, but for 2020 it looks like the harvest low may have came in early July. The big thing to keep in mind even if things do stabilize the market is likely to trade sideways with limited upside potential. Rain continues to be widespread across the Midwest. Part of the precipitation is coming with a high price of destructive wind and hail. It likely isn’t affecting a big enough area though to make a big impact on the overall crop. The latest crop progress report shows a slight decrease in corn and soybean ratings week to week, but they are still well ahead of year ago condition levels. That will continue to keep those strong trend line yields in place and likely make for a large US fall crop.

For a little good news StoneX Chief Economist Arlan Suderman reports that US export shipments of corn are now running 6 million bushels ahead of pace to hit USDA’s goal. That is up from 3 million bushels last week. The US Dollar will now have to cooperate to keep that pace though as South American corn is starting to hit the market.

Livestock closed mostly lower on Tuesday. With states like California rolling back their reopening plans and closing dining rooms how much food service demand will again be lost. So far carcass cutouts have yet to fall hard and load count is still very active. This could change quickly though, especially if more states start to follow suit. Cash and a strong close in the equities on Tuesday could give cattle a boost on Wednesday.

There was a light trade develop in Kansas and Texas on Tuesday at $95-$96.50. Most of that trade was $95. That is fully steady with last week’s weighted average in the South. There was no trade reported in the North. Asking prices are still around $100 plus in the South, and $162 plus in the North.

 

Expected Slaughter numbers Tuesday

Cattle

120,000 hd today 121,000 hd wk ago 121,588 hd yr ago

Hogs

466,000 hd today 462,000  hd wk ago 473,311 hd yr ago

 

Midday Carcass Value Tuesday

Beef

Choice dn 2.47 200.79

Select  dn 0.10 191.78

C/S Spread 9.01

Loads 91

Pork

Carcass up 0.58 68.10

Bellies up 2.23 101.80

Loads 227

 

Grains Settlements

  • Corn dn 2-3
  • Soybeans up 1 1/4 – 4
  • Chicago Wht up 1 – 2
  • Kansas City Wht dn 6 – 6 3/4

Livestock Settlements

  • Live Cattle dn 0.32 – 1.22
  • Feeder Cattle dn 0.30 – 1.20
  • Lean Hogs dn 1.35 up 0.55
  • Class III Milk dn 0.61 up 0.01

Pre-Opening Market Broker Commentary

Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today. China made a large purchase of corn and soybeans.


Jerry Stowell, Country Futures,  looks at what may impact the livestock futures today. Cattle are not offering a lot of direction ahead of the open.


Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, takes a look at the midday trade. Corn calendar spreads may give an idea of what the cash market is thinking. China is needing corn.


John Payne, Daniels Ag Marketing, looks at the grain settlements. Corn saw a large sale before the open, but large stockpiles kept corn from moving higher.


Jack Fenske, York Commodities, looks at the closing market numbers.

The latest crop progress report shows the toll the hot, dog days of summer are bringing for crops, pastures and moisture conditions. Corn and soybean conditions continue to deteriorate for most states, but a select few were able to see weekly condition increases. Winter wheat harvest continues to move closer to the finish line as far Northern states starts the very first days of their winter wheat harvest.

Corn silking is the first segment of the latest crop progress report. Corn silking is also one of the first development stages to fall behind the 5 year average pace. Nationwide 29% of the corn crop has reached silking. That is 3% behind the 5 year average of 32%. Kansas is 1% ahead of the 5 year average at 47%. Nebraska is 10% behind the five year average at 19%. For the big I states Illinois is the farthest behind in corn silking at 36%. That is 16% behind the 5 year average.

July 13 is the first week to report corn entering the dough stage. Nationwide the corn crop is on pace with the 5 year average 3%. Nebraska is ahead on the dough stage at 1%. Kansas has outpaced the 5 year average at 9%. Texas has the most corn in the dough stage at 60%.

Corn condition dropped for most states, but Kansas improved 1% to 53% good to excellent. Nationwide the corn crop is rated 69% good to excellent. Down 2% from a week ago. Iowa’s corn crop is rated one of the best in the nation at 83% good to excellent, down 2% from last week. Nebraska corn dropped 4% week to week at 70% good to excellent.

Across the country 11% of the soybean crop has set pods. That is up 9% from a week ago. Nebraska soybeans have set pods on 13% of the crop. That is 9% ahead of the 5 year average. Kansas soybeans have set pods on 6% of the crop. Doubling the Kansas 5 year average for soybeans setting pods at 3%. Arkansas has the most pods set on their soybean crop according to NASS at 30%. That is actually down 14% from the five year average.

Soybean condition in the US according to NASS is 68% good to excellent, down 3% from a week ago. The national rating is still 14% ahead of a year ago. Nebraska soybeans dropped 3% to 73% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans dropped 1% to 83% good to excellent. Kansas was one of the few states to actually see an improvement week to week in their soybean condition to 59% good to excellent, that is up 2%.

Sorghum is starting to color up across the country and saw a signifcant drop in Nebraska condition rating. Nebraska sorghum was rated 53% good to excellent, down 15% from the previous week. Nationally sorghum is rated at 46% good to excellent, down 2% from last week and 28% lower than a year ago.

Winter wheat harvest is chugging steadily for the finish line at 68% complete nationally. Compared to a year ago that is 14% ahead and 2% ahead of the 5 year average. Nebraska is just at the half way mark, up 10% from a year ago. Meanwhile Kansas is just 5% away from join Oklahoma and Texas at 100% complete. Northern states like Idaho and Washington are just getting started with wheat harvest at 2% each.

Oat harvest is looking to be fast and furious in 2020. The first oat harvest report from NASS shows nationwide 12% of the oat crop is in the bin.  Nebraska is 30% complete, up 6% from the 5 year average. Texas has the most oats harvested at 95% complete.

Pasture and range condition continues to deteriorate across much of the country. Kansas again one of the few states to improve week to week at 41% good to excellent. That is up 1% from last week. Nebraska pasture saw a dramatic drop of 15% from lat week to just 48% good to excellent. Colorado pasture and range has more in the very poor to poor rating at 44% than it does in the good to excellent range at 23%.

Finally soil moisture was able to recharge just a little last week with the wide spread rains. Nebraska topsoil moisture gained 3% to 53% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture also gained 3% to 55% adequate to surplus. California is giving New Mexico a run for it’s money for the driest top soil at 40% short to very short. New Mexico is still the driest top soil though at 44% short to very short.

Finally subsoil moisture follows a similar pattern. Kansas subsoil improved 1% to 55% adequate to surplus. Nebraska subsoil deteriorated 1% to 60% adequate to surplus. Wyoming is starting to see a drastic shift in subsoil moisture this week to 71% short to very short.

You can see the full crop progress report here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/w6634r16g/cz30qf661/prog2920.pdf

Clay Patton has a full recap of the report here:

For the first full week of July corn and soybean ratings started to drop slightly across the nation.Corn silking is the first crop condition area we see that is actually behind the five year average. Winter wheat harvest is rolling along ahead of schedule in most states.  Top soil and subsoil moisture continue to be dry and dropping across the country.

NASS estimated that 71% of the corn crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, July 5, down 2 percentage points from 73% the previous week but still well above 57% at the same time a year ago.

For corn Iowa and Minnesota set at the top of the pile with 85% good-to-excellent condition ratings. Pennsylvania stays a close second at 82% and Nebraska it towards the top at 74% good to excellent.  On the opposite end of the scale Michigan and Colorado have the highest percentage of corn rated very poor to poor, at 14% and 16%, respectively.

Up to this point in the growing year much of the crop progress has been well ahead of the five year average. Corn silking however continues to to run behind the five year average. NASS estimated that 10% of corn was silking, 6 percentage points behind the five-year average of 16%.

Soybean development, on the other hand, was near to slightly ahead of normal last week. Soybeans blooming was estimated at 31%, 7 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 24%, while soybeans setting pods was estimated at 2%, near the five-year average of 4%.

Looking at the state by state break down Iowa is now 37% in bloom, Minnesota 43% and Nebraska 41%. All these ratings are well ahead of their respective 5 year average.

The national soybean condition rating came in the same as the corn crop: 71% good to excellent nationwide. That was unchanged from the previous week and still well ahead of 53% at the same time last year. Iowa was 84% good to excellent, along with Minnesota 83% , Wisconsin 79% and Nebraska 76% .

Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest moved ahead 15 percentage points last week to reach 56% complete as of Sunday, 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 55%.

Harvest in Kansas in 80% complete, Illinois is 81% and Missouri is at 84% finished,. Nebraska winter wheat is 16% harvested, and South Dakota has not started yet.

Winter wheat condition — for the portion of the crop still in fields — was rated 51% good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from 52% from the previous week. Sixty-one percent of North Dakota’s winter wheat crop was rated good-to-excellent.

View the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/c247fd92b/1g05g1123/prog2820.pdf

Clay Patton breaks down the full report here:

Commodity markets, including grains, fell in with the risk off sentiment that developed across the entire market complex Friday. Brain Splitt with Ag Marketing.Net weighed in on how rising cases of Covid-19 may impact more than the equity markets.

Energy markets are at risk as states like Texas pause their reopening. That translate to harm for corn demand. Splitt is quick to point out though that there is one demand factor that could be improving for corn and that is feed demand. As DDGS and other feed ration ingredients became more scarce corn filled in more gaps livestock feeders.

China is back in the market for US soybeans on Friday, but their total demand picture is still fuzzy. A weather story would definitely help bean bears, but time for the story to develop is starting to dwindle in Splitt’s opinion.

Listen to the full commentary here:

Pollinators are a vital part of agriculture and for National Pollinator week we are looking at different ways pollinators and ag producers work together.

When Hunnicutt Farms of Giltner decided to expand into organic soybeans Zach Hunnicutt said the organic guidelines led them to look at planting pollinator habitat

Hunnicutt said they had seen some research showing increased soybean yields around pollinator habitats, not dramatic, but enough to make them want to give it a try.

Listen for the rest of the story:

 

Following hot and dry conditions mixed rain showers were welcomed by farmers across the Midwest this past weekend. That helped to bring around the corn and soybean conditions from the previous week. Winter wheat harvest was able to keep pace with the 5 year average. Topsoil moisture was also able to increase in several states that were starting to become pretty dry.

Corn planting and emergence is considered complete across the country. That means that corn is now in or nearly in the silking stage. According to NASS 2% of the national corn crop is silking. That is on pace with the five year average. Kansas has 3% silking. Which is about 3% from the five year average. Nebraska has yet to see any corn enter the silking stage. Texas has the most corn silking at 55%. That is 5% ahead of the five year average.

As for the national corn condition it improved 1% week to week to 72% good to excellent. Nebraska corn improved 3% to 74% good to excellent. Kansas corn remained unchanged to 54% good to excellent. Pennsylvania continues to have one of the best corn crops at 88% good to excellent.

Soybeans have yet to complete the planting or emergence stage. That means they are still reported by NASS. Soybean planting is considered 96% complete up 3% from last week. Just 4 states have yet to hit the 90% and above planting completion. Kansas has 95% of the soybeans planted. That is 8% ahead of the 5 year average. Nebraska completed soybean planting last week.

Soybean emergence is 4% ahead of the five year average nationally at 89%. Iowa and Nebraska are both considered 96% emerged. That is 5-6% ahead of the five year average. Kansas is 15% ahead of the five year average at 86% emerged.

5% of the soybean crop nationally is considered to have entered the blooming stage. That is on pace with the five year average. Nebraska has 16% of the soybean crop blooming, up 13% from the five year average. Kansas is right at the five year average for 1%. Louisana has the most soybeans blooming at 55%.

Nationally soybeans are considered 70% good to excellent. That is down 2% from the previous week. Iowa has one of the strongest soybean crops at 84% good to excellent, up 2% from the previous week. Kansas improved 4% to 68% good to excellent. Nebraska soybeans dropped 1% to 77% good to excellent.

Winter wheat is almost completely headed at 96% nationally. That is just 1% behind the five year average. Kansas is now officially 100% headed out.  That is even with the five year average. Nebraska saw 11% of the winter wheat crop head out since last week to 96%. That is still 2% from the five year average. Montana and Michigan are the only 2 states that have not reached 90% or better headed out for winter wheat.

Winter wheat harvest continues across the country now considered 29% complete, up 14% from the previous week and 16% from a year ago. It is also 3% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska has yet to start winter wheat harvest. Kansas has harvested 25% of the winter wheat crop. That is up 16% from last week and 1% ahead of the five year average.

Nationally the winter wheat crop continues on a roller coaster of condition. Nationally the crop improved 2% to 52% good to excellent. Kansas winter wheat dropped 1% to 44% good to excellent. Nebraska increased 19%, after dropping 23% last week, to 62% good to excellent. Colorado winter wheat dropped 2% to 29% good to excellent. 37% of the crop is considered poor to very poor.

Spring wheat decreased in condition week to week at 75% good to excellent. That is down from 81% good to excellent.

Pasture and range land also benefited from the weekend rains. Nebraska pasture improved 5% to 71% good to excellent. Kansas improved 1% to 50% good to excellent. Colorado pasture is still dry with 0% in the excellent category and 26% in the good category. Colorado has the third highest very poor to poor rating at 48%. California (55% p-vp) and New Mexico (59% p-vp) are number one and two.

Topsoil moisture was able to recharge in Kansas up 14% to 61% adequate to surplus. Nebraska remained unchanged to 62% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture was also able to improve in Kansas up 4% to 63% adequate to surplus. Nebraska subsoil moisture improved 1% to 75% adequate to surplus.

Find the full crop progress report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/w9505n13w/8910kf14z/prog2620.pdf  

Clay Patton has the full report information as a podcast

 

Markets on Tuesday started with a risk on sentiment. By the close even the outside equities had faded on that sentiment. Grains ended mixed with spread action setting up between corn and wheat. Wheat is being sold on decent crop conditions, but also seasonal harvest market pressure. Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, joined the Fontanelle Final Bell and discussed the seasonality of the current marketing trends in the grains. Hackett is eyeing the Minneapolis spring wheat market as the signal for a turn around in the market. “Spring wheat is growing right now and very susceptible to a weather issue.” According to Hackett. During the Fontanelle Final Bell Hackett also highlights recent research his team has done about global crop insects and pests that could impact the markets later this year.

The second half of the Fonatenelle Final Bell is dedicated to livestock. Hackett starts with Class III milk futures and highlights that the recent upswing may be over done at $20. Hackett also doesn’t believe the live cattle lean hog spread can continue much higher.

Hear the full program here:

The latest crop progress report shows the hot and dry weather in the Midwest has yet to impact major crop conditions. It has though significantly dropped the top and subsoil moisture. Winter wheat harvest continues to roll on pace with it’s five year average doubling week to week.

Corn planting is considered complete by NASS across the country. Thus the crop progress report this week starts off with corn emergence, which like planting, is nearly complete. 95% of the countries corn crop has emerged – 3% ahead of the five year average. Kansas has seen 95% corn emergence – an increase of 9% from the previous week. Nebraska has 98% corn emergence – just 2% ahead of the five year average. While several states are at the 98-99% emergence rate, only one state has reached 100% emergence. That is North Carolina which only needed 2% more to emerge from last week to reach 100%.

Nationally, the corn crop did see a slight drop in condition rating going from 75% good to excellent to 71% good to excellent. Kansas corn condition fell 6% from last week to 54% good to excellent. Nebraska’s corn rating fell 12% to 71% good to excellent. Pennsylvania still runs one of the strongest corn crops in the nation at 91% good to excellent, improving 1% since last week.

The soybean planting report was still released this week, but it is quickly nearing the 100% mark. Nationally 93% of the soybean crop is planted, up 7% from last week and 5% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska inched 2% week to week to officially finish soybean planting. Kansas improved 10% week to week to 89% complete. That is 13% ahead of the five year average.

Soybean emergence continues 6% ahead of the five year average nationally at 81%. Nebraska soybean emergence is now rated at 94% – 10% ahead of the five year average. Kansas opened it’s lead on the five year average to 20% this week with 73% of the soybean crop already emerged. No state has hit the 100% emergence rating yet.

The national soybean condition is rated 72% good to excellent, equal with the rating a week ago. Nebraska soybeans dropped 4% from 82% yo 78% good to excellent. Kansas soybean rating fell 3% to 64% good to excellent. Iowa saw a large drop week to week on the soybean rating. Going from 82% good to excellent last week to 72% good to excellent this week.

Grain sorghum planting is continuing at a steady pace, up 15% from last week nationally to 79% good to excellent. Nebraska sorghum planting is 9% ahead of the five year average to 97% complete. National sorghum rating fell 7% to 48% good to excellent. Nebraska sorghum is rated 55% good to excellent.

Winter wheat is almost completely headed out. Nationally 91% of the crop is considered headed out. Nebraska is still lagging 7% from the five year average to 85%. Kansas is right on pace at 99% headed out. Montana is the furthest from being completely headed out at only 28%. That is up 23% from last week, but 19% behind the five year average.

Winter wheat harvest doubled week to week from 7% to 15% complete. Right on pace with the five year average. Kansas is 1% ahead of the five year average at 9% complete. Nebraska has yet to start winter wheat harvest. Texas is the furthest along with winter wheat harvest at 38% complete. Up 15% from last week and 16% ahead of the five year average for Texas.

The winter wheat crop is rated 50% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and down 14% from a year ago. Kansas winter wheat is rated 45% good to excellent. That’s an increase of 3% from last week. Nebraska is rated 43% good to excellent. A drop of 23% from last week. Colorado is holding at 31% good to excellent, but 16% is still rated very poor. Oklahoma is the only other state with double digit very poor rating at 14% very poor. Oklahoma also has 46% of the winter wheat crop rated good to excellent.

Pasture and range condition is not fairing well in the heat and wind. Kansas pasture and range fell 6% to 49% good to excellent. Nebraska pasture and range also fell 6% to 66% good to excellent.

Topsoil and subsoil moisture both saw double digit drops week to week in several states. Kansas topsoil is now considered 47% adequate to surplus. Down 15% from last week. Nebraska topsoil moisture is rated 61% adequate to surplus down 16% from last week. New Mexico has the driest top soil with a 45% very short rating. Kansas subsoil moisture is rated 59% adequate to surplus down 9% from last week. Nebraska subsoil moisture is rated 74% adequate to surplus. That is down 12% from last week. Some state are still near saturated at the subsoil level. Alabama is rated 93% adequate to surplus for subsoil moisture.

See the full crop progress report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/pk02cx87g/rx914b27v/prog2520.pdf

Clay Patton recaps the report here:

 

An emergency motion was filed late last week, asking a federal court to bring all dicamba use in the U.S. to an immediate halt. DTN says the motion also asks that the Environmental Protection Agency be held in contempt of court for its decision to permit farmers to use their existing stocks of three dicamba herbicides.

If the judge agrees, that could once again leave farmers without the dicamba herbicide options they need to use on millions of acres of dicamba-tolerant soybeans and cotton through the summer growing season. The emergency motion was filed by the same plaintiffs who brought the lawsuit against the EPA in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

The suit demanding the court bring an end to the registrations of three dicamba herbicides succeeded on June 3rd when the judge ruled in the plaintiffs’ favor. Five days after that, the EPA issued a cancellation order, ending the registrations but allowing farmers and applicators to continue to use existing stocks until July 31st.

The plaintiffs, including the Center for Food Safety and the Center for Biological Diversity, estimated that up to 16 million pounds of dicamba could be applied in the coming weeks, which they say is a direct violation of the court’s ruling.