Tag Archives: soybeans

Summary

The market gets started with a shortened trading week. There was no trade on Monday in the US in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

The outside equities may have to trade on more stimulus hopes rather than hard data. Tuesday offers no major data releases and President Elect Biden’s Treasury pick, Janet Yellen is expected to make her pitch for the $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus plan to the Senate during her confirmation hearing. President Elect Biden will also be sworn into office on Wednesday.

As for the grain market the Monday overnight trade saw significant pullback in the soybean complex. Meal, oil and soybeans were down nearly 1.5% on most contracts. The pullback comes as weather patterns temporarily improve over parts of Argentina and Brazil. Although a La Nina pattern still seems to be in place over equatorial pacific waters the moisture may be short lived. Harvest is getting underway on the early planted soybeans in Mato Grasso, but the pace is extremely slow. The five year average has harvest pace around 5% complete however it’s estimated only 1% of harvest is complete. Still Stone X analysts believe that Brazil can have 1 MMT of new crop beans to the port for shipment by the end of the month.

Cash trade in the country last week developed on Wednesday following the Fed Cattle Exchange. The South saw trade at $110 to $111, the $111 was early but has been backed down to $110, $1 to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages.

For the week ending January 09, 2021, Imported Beef Passed for Entry in the U.S. totaled 34,280, 133.91% of the previous week and 109.63% of the 4-week average.

Expected Slaughter numbers Tuesay

118,000 hd today 118,000 hd wk ago 124,288 hd yr ago

Hogs

495,000 hd today 496,000 hd wk ago 496,032 hd yr ago

Midday Carcass Value  Tuesday

Beef

Choice up 2.60 217.64

Select up 0.12 205.96

C/S Spread 11.68

Loads 81

Pork

Carcass up 0.07 78.59

Bellies dn 11.33 108.05

Loads 225

Grain Settlements

  • Corn
  • Soybeans
  • Chicago
  • Kansas City
  • Livestock Settlements
  • Live Cattle
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Lean Hogs
  • Class III Milk

 

Pre-Opening Market Broker Commentary

Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, believes grains are due a pullback and it could be happening now.


Jerry Stowell, Country Futures,  looks at what may impact the livestock futures today. Livestock will try to rally buyers to create follow through from last Friday.


Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, takes a look at the midday trade. Grains continue to selloff as the market realizes possible demand issues.


John Payne, Daniel’s Ag Marketing, takes a closer look at today’s grain close. Payne is not concerned with the recent pullback in grains. The long term picture is still inflationary and bullish.


Jack Fenske, York Commodities, looks at the closing market numbers.

The first overnight trading session of 2021 was on fire for the grains. Unfortunately the day trade brought a cooling to the market with grains ending the day mixed. Sue Martin with Ag and Investment joined the Fontanelle Final Bell on Monday to highlight some of the reasons why there may have been pull back after the strong overnight session. At the top of the list it may have simply been profit it taking with overnight traders running the corn market to nearly $5 and soybean market to $13.50.

Martin is also closely watching the weather and labor situations in South America. Temps in Argentina and Brazil continue to be hot and dry, but some area’s have seen mixed precipitation. As for the labor side the port strike may not actually be over in Argentina. Martin will be watching the loading of ready ships to see if that offers any idea of where labor stands in Argentine ports.

You can catch the full episode here:

The newest grain export sales report from the USDA for the week ending on December 24 shows that 2020 is ending on a positive note.

Soybean export sales for the 2020-2021 crop surpassed analyst expectations. The trade was looking for sales ranging between 7–25 million bushels. However, the new figure passed those estimates as sales jumped 74 percent from the previous week to 33.7 million bushels. Export sales cancellations also rose 23 percent to 7.9 million bushels. However, a Farm Futures article says that’s not surprising because a recent run-up in the price of soybeans likely caused some price resistance among smaller buyers.

Weekly export sales for 2020-2021 corn also surpassed market expectations in last week’s report. Forecasters were looking in a range of 19-39 million bushels, but USDA reported a 55 percent increase in week-over-week sales to 43.1 million bushels. Rallying corn prices caused cancellations to increase to 5.1 million bushels.

Wheat sales weren’t as strong as those of corn and soybeans. However, they were strong because of a weaker dollar and limited exportable supplies in the Black Sea region. The weekly total was up one-third from the previous week to 19.2 million bushels.

$14 soybeans and $5 always sound nice, but what is the reality the US market could ever get there? On the last trading Friday in 2020 Brian Splitt with Ag Market.Net highlights how technical indicators are poised to take a run at those prices. This comes as soybeans settle firmly above $12 and corn is once again aiming at $4.50.

Splitt also looks at improving fundamentals that continue to support the market. Including South American weather and demand. Above all else is the macro or broader market and there Splitt is closely watching currencies, including the US dollar.

Hear Splitt’s comments for your self right here:

 

Arlan Suderman, Chief Economist for Stone X, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell midweek just ahead of the December WASDE report. Suderman highlights that the December report from USDA and World Outlook Board is usually a boring report. Being 2020 though December has the possibility to hold both bullish and bearish surprises. Ending stocks will be key to the report. Especially for soybeans with most analyst estimates ahead of the report showing soybeans below 170 million bushels.

Outside of the WASDE report traders continue to closely watch South American weather. Suderman brings to date the latest weather patterns over Brazil and Argentina. Along with the reality of what a dry pattern actually looks like in South America.

Suderman briefly touches on why the US Dollar Index is climbing with the Euro falling. Brexit is about to go from nice to messy and it’s not good for the Euro.

The final topic lands in livestock with Suderman highlighting China’s latest high rise hog farms. On the outside these hog farms appear to be a solid step in increasing Chinese pork production. However this system could have an Achilles heel given the tight concentration of hogs and the high pathological movement of African Swine Fever.

You can listen to the entire Fontanelle Final Bell here: