Overnight markets set the stage for a Thursday day trade. The talk of certifying acres once again in North Dakota & Minnesota. Choppy trade continues with harvest delays & snow in the Dakota’s & Minnesota & wet weather elsewhere. Livestock continue on an uptrend & a knee jerk reaction to the explosion in Dodge City KS.
In addition to corn condition dropping 1 percentage point this week, corn estimated as mature is still far behind the five-year average pace, according to USDA NASS’ latest Crop Progress report released Tuesday.
As of Sunday, 73% of corn was estimated as mature, 19 percentage points behind the five-year average of 92%. That was slightly closer to the average pace than last week, when corn mature was running 27 percentage points behind average.
“North Dakota and Michigan are just 42% and 44% mature, while Wisconsin and South Dakota are 49% and 53%, respectively,” DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini said.
Nationwide, corn harvest progressed another 7 percentage points to reach 22% as of Sunday, but that’s still 14 percentage points behind the five-year average of 36%.
“North Dakota harvest was just 1% done, while Wisconsin is 3% and South Dakota, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa are just 5% to 7% done,” Mantini noted.
The condition of corn still in fields continued to decline with an estimated 55% good-to-excellent rating, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and the lowest in six years, according to Mantini.
Mantini also noted that, “USDA said 96% of the corn crop is dented as of October 13, up from last week’s 93% and below the five-year average of 100%. Ohio, Indiana, the Dakotas and Wisconsin are lagging the most, in a range of 84% to 95% dented; Wisconsin is at 84%.”
Soybeans dropping leaves reached 85% as of Sunday, 8 percentage points behind the five-year average of 93% — an improvement from last week when the percent of the crop dropping leaves was running 15 percentage points behind average.
Soybean harvest moved ahead 12 percentage points last week to reach 26%, but still 23 percentage points behind the five-year average of 49%. That was further behind average than in last Monday’s report, when soybean harvest was running 7 percentage points behind the average pace.
“North Dakota was 16% done, while South Dakota was only 13% and Kansas, Missouri and Wisconsin are all in the 13% to 15% done range,” Mantini said. Soybean condition was rated 54% good to excellent, up 1 percentage point from 53% the previous week.
Spring wheat harvest moved ahead only 3 percentage points to reach 94% as of Sunday, 6 percentage points behind the five-year average of 100% complete.
Winter wheat planting progress stood at 65% as of Sunday, equal to the five-year average. Winter wheat emerged was estimated at 41%, 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average.
Sorghum mature was estimated at 81%, just barely behind the average of 82%. Sorghum harvested reached 40%, behind the five-year average of 46%.
Cotton bolls opening was estimated at 87%, ahead of the average of 83%. Cotton harvested was estimated at 32%, also ahead of the five-year average of 27%. Rice harvested was 87%, just slightly behind the average of 87%.
To view weekly crop progress reports issued by National Ag Statistics Service offices in individual states, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov.
Listen to Clay Patton break down the report here:
|National Crop Progress Summary|
|Soybeans Dropping Leaves||85||72||94||93|
|Spring Wheat Harvested||94||91||100||100|
|Winter Wheat Planted||65||52||64||65|
|Winter Wheat Emerged||41||26||42||40|
|Cotton Bolls Opening||87||83||84||83|
|National Crop Condition Summary|
|(VP = Very Poor; P = Poor; F = Fair; G = Good; E = Excellent)|
|This Week||Last Week||Last Year|
|National Soil Moisture Condition – 48 States|
|(VS = Very Short; SH = Short; AD = Adequate; SR = Surplus)|
|This Week||Last Week||Last Year|
USDA expects farmers to harvest 13.8 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall with a national average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre (bpa). The production estimate came in slightly higher than expected, while yield was only increased by 0.2 bpa.
Soybean production was forecast at 3.55 bb, within the range of pre-report estimates, while the national average yield was 46.9 bpa, also within expectations.
Soybean ending stocks, however, dropped to 460 million bushels (mb), a 180 mb decline that’s within the range of pre-report estimates.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
With USDA forecasting a yield of 168.4 bpa and harvested acreage of 81.8 million, that puts total production at 13.8 bb, down less than 1% from September’s estimates.
After finding smaller stockpiles at the end of the 2018-19 marketing year than expected in the September 30 Grain Stocks report, USDA put total beginning stocks for the new-crop marketing year at 2.12 bb, 331 mb below its September estimate. USDA increased its forecast for feed and residual use by 125 mb, while lowering ethanol use by 50 mb. It also slashed exports to 1.9 bb from 2.05 bb last month.
As a result, ending stocks dropped to 1.93 bb, breaking through the psychologically important 2 bb mark and falling toward the high side of pre-report estimates.
The national average farm-gate price increased by 20 cents to $3.80
Globally, corn stocks came at 302.6 million metric tons (mmt), down 3.7 mmt from last month but slightly above the range of pre-report expectations.
USDA pegged new-crop soybean production at 3.550 bb, down from 3.633 bb in September. That drop was enabled by the agency’s tweak to average soybean yield, down to 46.9 bpa, 1 bpa lower than the September estimate. Harvested acres were also trimmed 75.6 million acres.
New-crop ending stocks came in at 460 mb, on the lower end of pre-report analyst estimates. The drop came largely from USDA’s trimming of old-crop soybean stocks to 913 mb, down from 1.005 bb in September. To find that lower old crops ending stocks number, USDA adjusted old-crop production down to 4.428 bb, down from 4.544 bb.
The U.S. average farm gate price for soybeans was pegged at $9 per bushel, up from $8.50 last month.
Globally, new-crop soybean ending stocks landed at 95.21 mmt down from 99.19 mmt in September, and also on the low end of pre-report expectations.
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)|
|U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2019-20|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|
WASHINGTON, District of Columbia–The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released 2017 Census of Agriculture data tabulated by zip code. The zip code tabulations are available through, NASS’ online data query tool.
“Used by producers, community leaders, researchers, and many others in support of agriculture, the zip code tabulation provides yet another entry point to the vast amount of Census data,” said Agricultural Statistics Board Chair Joseph Parsons.
Data summaries are also available at the national, state, county, congressional district, watershed, and American Indian reservation level at. Still to be released are the Race, Ethnicity, and Gender Profiles on October 1.
Other products to expect this summer and fall include state-specific Census blogs showcased onand additional Census publications found on the NASS website. Notifications of when these products are available are announced @USDA__NASS on Twitter. In addition to these products, of data may be requested on the NASS website, if needed.
Already preparing for the 2022 Census of Agriculture, NASS is asking forand for new producers who did not receive a 2017 Census of Agriculture form last year to in future censuses and surveys. Both forms can be found at .