- Input cost worries?
- Tough day in the grains with lower prices
- Huge news week in the U.S. & globally
- With all this outside influence how is that effecting our markets
- What goes up has to come down once & awhile
- Mixed livestock cattle trade
- Lower hogs
- Cattle market still has the chance to go higher
- First full week of trading in ‘21-what’s the feel of the cash
- Big outside day on Monday
- How does livestock react to higher grains?
- Macro markets-how are they playing a role in the trade?
- Huge cash feeder movement the next couple of weeks?
- Dollar on the trade
- Hogs have some money positions moving…how does that effect front month?
- Cheep meat at the counter
- Holiday doldrum trade
- A lot of year end wrap up going on
- South America as we get to Jan will see what their weather impact will be
- Corn imports with China all-time high
- Taiwan approves pork imports with Ractopamine
- Update to the dairy industry how has cheese buys effected the trade?
- Cattle supply side is bullish
- Higher grains to finish out the trade week
- Weather in South America
- The need for having reserves once again
- Stimulus package
- Beef could get expensive going into the new year with stronger profits
As expected the quarterly hogs and pigs report did show a slight drop in the US hog herd. This came as a result of steady slaughter and less gilt retention for breeding.
The full report breaks down as the United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2020 was 77.5 million head. This was down 1% from December 1, 2019, and down 1% from September 1, 2020.
US breeding hog inventory currently sits at 6.28 million head, down 3% from last year, and down 1% from the previous
US market hog inventory, at 71.2 million head, was down 1% from last year, and down 1% from last quarter.
The September-November 2020 pig crop, at 35.0 million head, was down 1% from 2019. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.16 million head, down 1% from 2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.05 for the September-November period,
compared to 11.09 last year.
Livestock market analyst Kyle Bumsted believes the report is positive at face value. However there was several revisions that need to be watched closely.
Catch the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/rj430453j/7d279j76f/g445d5751/hgpg1220.pdf
- Crush number boosted the soybeans
- Holiday trade is setting in
- Low volume for the corn
- China grows their hog herd
- Cutout break…what does this mean going forward?
- Not a lot of cattle movement-part December part price?
Arlan Suderman, Chief Economist for Stone X, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell midweek just ahead of the December WASDE report. Suderman highlights that the December report from USDA and World Outlook Board is usually a boring report. Being 2020 though December has the possibility to hold both bullish and bearish surprises. Ending stocks will be key to the report. Especially for soybeans with most analyst estimates ahead of the report showing soybeans below 170 million bushels.
Outside of the WASDE report traders continue to closely watch South American weather. Suderman brings to date the latest weather patterns over Brazil and Argentina. Along with the reality of what a dry pattern actually looks like in South America.
Suderman briefly touches on why the US Dollar Index is climbing with the Euro falling. Brexit is about to go from nice to messy and it’s not good for the Euro.
The final topic lands in livestock with Suderman highlighting China’s latest high rise hog farms. On the outside these hog farms appear to be a solid step in increasing Chinese pork production. However this system could have an Achilles heel given the tight concentration of hogs and the high pathological movement of African Swine Fever.
You can listen to the entire Fontanelle Final Bell here:
- Markets seeing battle between what we know & what is possible with weather
- What is fair price?
- WASDE report not heavily weighted on the trade.
- Lower dollar
- Will corn deal with more spillover pressure from beans?
- CA Lockdown…how does that play into the markets?
- Hogs remain rangebound