Tag Archives: Crop Progress

  • More bullish on cattle then in the past couple of weeks
  • Cattle coming around
  • Could be less cattle this fall then compared to previous years
  • August 5, 2019 $107.80 not far off from where we are today
  • Weeks…not months to getting caught up.
  • Cash will grind higher the next couple of weeks
  • Packers are willing to take on inventory.
  • COVID & retail trade & exports are amazing.
  • Hogs on the other hand struggle. Another gut punch to the trade
  • Pork product not doing well, which makes the cash market struggle
  • Export hogs are good, just need to get the short term to catch
  • Grains-we will get another round of crop rating.
  • We need to shift from supply to demand.
  • Massive exports to China

 

The second half of July is looking to have a friendlier forecast for crops. This combined with last week’s moisture and heat helped to keep corn conditions nationwide unchanged week to week. Soybean conditions increased 1% week to week. Winter wheat harvest seems to be hitting a slight speed bump as it moves North. Pasture and range condition continues to deteriorate and soil moisture levels are mixed.

For corn the heat is helping keep development ahead of schedule. Nationwide 59% of the corp is silking. That is 5% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska’s corn crop is now 61% silked. Kansas corn has reached 66% silk. That is 2%-3% ahead of the five year average.

Corn in the dough stage tripled week to week from 3% to 9% nationwide. Nebraska is only half way to it’s five year average at 3%. Kansas corn on the other hand is nearly double it’s five year average at 25% in the dough stage.

Corn condition nationwide remained unchanged at 69% good to excellent. Kansas increased 1% week to week to 54% good to excellent. Texas and Illinois corn increased 2%. South Dakota corn increased 2%.  Nebraska decreased 4% to 66% good to excellent. Iowa fell another 2% to 81% good to excellent. Indiana remained unchanged week to week at 59% good to excellent.

Soybeans crossed the halfway threshold for blooming. According to NASS 64% of the national soybean crop has now bloomed. That is up from last week’s 48% and 7% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska soybeans are now 75% in bloom. Kansas soybeans in bloom are 11% ahead of the five year average at 55%.

Nationwide 25% of the soybeans have set pods. That is up 14% from last week. Nebraska has reached 31% setting pods on it’s soybeans. That is more than double it’s five year average of 15%. Kansas soybeans have set pods on 15% of the crop. That is up 4% from the five year average.

Some analysts expected soybean conditions to continue decreasing, but NASS believes the crop improved slightly week to week. Nationwide the soybean crop improved 1% to 69% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans decreased 1% to 82% good to excellent, Kansas soybeans dropped 2% to 57% good to excellent, Nebraska fell 2% go 71% good to excellent. North Dakota was able to tick up 1% to 69% good to excellent. Illinois may have seen one of the largest changes week to week up 8% to 67% good to excellent.

Sorghum condition also increased week to week. Nationwide the sorghum crop was rated up 5% to 51% good to excellent. Nebraska sorghum improved 3% good to excellent.

Winter wheat harvest seems to have hit a little bit of a speed bump as it wraps up in southern states and moves further north. Nationwide 74% of winter wheat harvest is complete. That is now 1% behind the five year average. Nebraska is 79% complete with winter wheat harvest. That is 13% ahead of the five year average. Kansas is synced with it’s five year average at 97% complete. Further to the North Washington is 11% behind the five year average at 5% complete. Montana is 6% behind the five year average at 3% complete.

The heat continues to take it’s toll on pasture and range. In Nebraska pasture and range decreased 3% to 45% good to excellent. Kansas pasture and range decreased 3% to 38% good to excellent.

Topsoil moisture was able to recharge in Kansas last week. According to NASS Kansas topsoil increased 6% to 61% adequate to surplus. Nebraska topsoil decreased 1% to 52% adequate to surplus.

Subsoil moisture was similar to topsoil moisture, with Kansas increase 5% to 60% adequate to surplus. Nebraska decreased 3% to 57% adequate to surplus.

You can see the full crop progress report here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/sf268t43v/1831d650j/prog3020.pdf

Clay Patton recaps the full report here:

For the first full week of July corn and soybean ratings started to drop slightly across the nation.Corn silking is the first crop condition area we see that is actually behind the five year average. Winter wheat harvest is rolling along ahead of schedule in most states.  Top soil and subsoil moisture continue to be dry and dropping across the country.

NASS estimated that 71% of the corn crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, July 5, down 2 percentage points from 73% the previous week but still well above 57% at the same time a year ago.

For corn Iowa and Minnesota set at the top of the pile with 85% good-to-excellent condition ratings. Pennsylvania stays a close second at 82% and Nebraska it towards the top at 74% good to excellent.  On the opposite end of the scale Michigan and Colorado have the highest percentage of corn rated very poor to poor, at 14% and 16%, respectively.

Up to this point in the growing year much of the crop progress has been well ahead of the five year average. Corn silking however continues to to run behind the five year average. NASS estimated that 10% of corn was silking, 6 percentage points behind the five-year average of 16%.

Soybean development, on the other hand, was near to slightly ahead of normal last week. Soybeans blooming was estimated at 31%, 7 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 24%, while soybeans setting pods was estimated at 2%, near the five-year average of 4%.

Looking at the state by state break down Iowa is now 37% in bloom, Minnesota 43% and Nebraska 41%. All these ratings are well ahead of their respective 5 year average.

The national soybean condition rating came in the same as the corn crop: 71% good to excellent nationwide. That was unchanged from the previous week and still well ahead of 53% at the same time last year. Iowa was 84% good to excellent, along with Minnesota 83% , Wisconsin 79% and Nebraska 76% .

Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest moved ahead 15 percentage points last week to reach 56% complete as of Sunday, 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 55%.

Harvest in Kansas in 80% complete, Illinois is 81% and Missouri is at 84% finished,. Nebraska winter wheat is 16% harvested, and South Dakota has not started yet.

Winter wheat condition — for the portion of the crop still in fields — was rated 51% good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from 52% from the previous week. Sixty-one percent of North Dakota’s winter wheat crop was rated good-to-excellent.

View the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/c247fd92b/1g05g1123/prog2820.pdf

Clay Patton breaks down the full report here: