Tag Archives: corn


Risk off was the word of the day for the commodities and entire market complex on Wednesday. Equities started the selling in the overnight trade following comments from President Trump in a news press conference that the Covid-19 pandemic may take lives in the six digit range. Mortality rates of the disease have increased since last week. Money flow shifted to safe havens like the US Dollar and treasuries. The US Dollar index which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies started to put pressure on it’s nearby resistance of 100.00. At the time of this writing the Dollar Index was 0.51 higher at 99.60.

When commodities opened from the overnight session the risk off feeling continued with wheat and soybeans leading the way lower. Corn saw it’s heavies selling in the new crop December contract settling 10 1/4 lower. The may contract held it’s low from yesterday at 333 trying to possibly set up a double bottom from the technical side. Looking fundamentally there are some bullish factors for soybeans and wheat. Soybeans being that tomorrow’s export numbers could be strong with Chinese meal demand currently high and South America still facing logistical issues for exports. Wheat also has story shaping up with Russia being dry at a critical growth stage and limiting exports in the near term futures. Unfortunately on Wednesday these were all overlooked as macro market fears and selling gripped the entire complex. John Payne with Daniels Ag Marketing is still closely watching the emerging currencies like the Russian Ruble and Brazilian Real as he feels both those countries the most likely to experience financial hardship or even collapse given the current environment. You can hear his full comments below. As for corn the demand picture is still ugly as the energies see multi decade lows and there is even some put option volume on crude oil at 3 and 4 dollars. Ethanol data below shows that with plants idling down production is quickly dropping and stocks are quickly building.

According to EIA data  showed ethanol production dropped sharply down 16.4%, or 165,000 barrels per day (b/d), to 840,000 b/d, the lowest level in six and a half years. The weekly decline was the largest since the EIA began reporting ethanol production statistics in 2010.

Ethanol stocks rose 6.5% to a record 25.7 million barrels, eclipsing the previous high set four weeks prior. Inventories shifted higher across all regions except the Midwest (PADD 2). A majority of the stocks build took place in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where inventories grew by roughly one-quarter.

USDA placed quarterly stocks of US grains lower than many analysts estimates. Then on the acres cotton and corn both took quite a few acres. Full report below

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2020 totaled 7.95 billion bushels, down 8 percent from March 1, 2019. Of the total stocks, 4.45 billion bushels were stored on farms, down 13 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.50 billion bushels, are up slightly from a year ago. The December 2019 – February 2020 indicated disappearance is 3.45 billion bushels, compared with 3.32 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2020 totaled 2.25 billion bushels, down 17 percent from March 1, 2019. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 1.01 billion bushels, down 20 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.24 billion bushels, are down 15 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2019 – February 2020 quarter totaled 1.00 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2020 totaled 1.41 billion bushels, down 11 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 339 million bushels, down 8 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.07 billion bushels, are down 12 percent from a year ago. The December 2019 – February 2020 indicated disappearance is 428 million bushels, 3 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2020 is estimated at 97.0 million acres, up 8 percent or 7.29 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 38 of the 48 estimating States. Soybean planted area for 2020 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, up 10 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 22 of the 29 estimating States. All wheat planted area for 2020 is estimated at 44.7 million acres, down 1 percent from 2019. This represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2020 winter wheat planted area, at 30.8 million acres, is down 1 percent from last year and down slightly from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 21.7 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 5.69 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.42 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to
other spring wheat for 2020 is estimated at 12.6 million acres, down 1 percent from 2019. Of this total, about 11.9 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2020 is expected to total 1.29 million acres, down 4 percent from the previous year. All cotton planted area for 2020 is estimated at 13.7 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down less than 1 percent from 2019. American Pima area is estimated at 228,000 acres, down 1 percent from 2019

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
3/1/20 Avg High Low 12/1/19 3/1/19
Corn 7,950 8,162 8,492 7,892 11,389 8,613
Soybeans 2,250 2,237 2,701 2,075 3,252 2,727
Wheat 1,410 1,437 1,572 1,385 1,834 1,593
ACREAGE (million acres) USDA USDA
3/31/19 Avg High Low 2018-19 3/29/19
Corn 97.0 94.3 96.4 92.5 89.7 92.8
Soybeans 83.5 84.7 87.0 82.7 76.1 84.6
Cotton 13.7 13.8
Grain Sorghum 5.1
All Wheat   44.7 44.9 46.0 42.3 45.2 45.8
Winter 30.8 30.8 31.7 30.1 31.2 31.5
Spring 11.9 12.6 13.4 12.0 12.7 12.8
Durum 1.29 1.5 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.4


Russia’s two week forecast is still showing more dry weather as their wheat crop moves into the joint stage.

Winter wheat conditions improved in Kansas with 50% of the crop considered good to excellent. That is up 2% from last week. 3% of the crop is now in the joint stage. In Oklahoma the winter wheat is rated at 70% good to excellent down 7% from last week. 44% of the crop is now at the joint stage up 17% from last week. Texas winter wheat crop is considered 56% good to excellent up 7% from last week. 28% of the crop is headed out up 1% from last week.

USDA released the latest grain export inspections on Monday. Corn came in at 1,269,074 MT up from last week’s 857,987 MT. Soybeans inspected totaled 413,957 MT vs 587,398 MT last week. All wheat classes totaled 363,881 MT vs 354,466 MT last week.

For a quick recap of last week’s trade watch the Trading Bits and Bytes video here:

VIDEO: Watch the latest adipose of Trading Bits and Bytes with special guest John Payne

All livestock futures closed limit lower. Live cattle were the only ones on expanded limits. All contracts will be on expanded limits for Thursday. Cutouts for beef and pork have dropped like a rock this week. The little cash trade that is occurring is cheaper than last week. So it appears that the increased demand curve we saw with the initial panic buying has come and gone. Not helping this whole situation is the Denver Posts report that JBS’s Greeley CO plant has more than 800 employees not reporting for work due to Covid-19 concerns. This could be the first major plant of the big 4 to cut production or idle and cause a back log in finished cattle. Carcass weights will be closely watched to see what happens.

The latest retail meat report from USDA shows that at the grocery store the 15 cut average for beef is $5.20/lb across the country. That is $0.12 cheaper than last week and $0.06 cheaper than last year. The 4 cut average for pork is at $3.47/lb up $0.10 from last week and $0.48 higher than a year ago. The 3 cut average for chicken across the country is at $1.84/lb up $0.26 from last week and $0.10 higher than a year ago.

At the time of this writing there was a light trade  developing in parts of the South at $112, roughly $7 lower than last week’s weighted averages. A few deals are also being reported in parts of Nebraska at $112, these are set for delayed delivery (week of 4/20/20). Some asking price remain firm around $120 in the South, and $190 in the North. It is possible that significant trade volume may be delayed until Thursday or later.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction today listed a total of 4,696 head, consisting of 33 lots. A total of 832 head sold. 1-9 day delivery 2,079 head total, 662 head sold with a weighted average price of $113.00. 1-17 day delivery 2,617 head total, 170 head sold with a weighted average price of $112.06. The breakdown looks like this: Kansas had 13 lots, totaling 1,799 head, of which 318 head sold with at $113.00, 151 head sold at $113.00 but the offer was passed; Nebraska had nine lots totaling 1,211 head, of which 91 head sold at $111.25; Colorado had five lots totaling 695 head, of which none sold; Texas had four lots totaling 824 head, of which 344 head sold at $113.00, 480 head sold at $112.00 to $125.00, but the offer was passed; Oklahoma had two lots totaling 167 head, of which 79 head sold at $113.00.


Slaughter numbers Wednesday


119,000 hd today 122,000 hd wk ago hd  122,431 hd yr ago



485,000 hd today  497,000 hd wk ago  482,010 hd yr ago



Midday Carcass Value Wednesday


Choice dn 7.30 235.85

Select dn 2.06 226.90

C/S Spread 8.95

Loads 78


Carcass dn 1.95 63.09

Bellies dn 3.75 34.08

Loads 187


Grains Settlement

  • Corn dn  6 – 10 1/4
  • Soybeans dn 6 1/4 – 23 1/4
  • Chicago Wht dn 13 – 18 1/2
  • Kansas City Wht dn 13 3/4 -18

Livestock Settlement

  • Live Cattle dn 4.50
  • Feeder Cattle dn  4.50
  • Lean Hogs dn 3.00
  • Class III Milk up 0.24 – 0.49

Pre-Opening Market Broker Commentary

Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today. Gold believes yesterday’s stocks number gives the first glimpse that the 2019 crop was far from what USDA predicted.

Jerry Stowell, Country Futures,  looks at what may impact the livestock futures today. Stowell has a lot of information to cover from cash to falling cutout prices.

Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, takes a look at the midday trade. Zuzolo looks at how Macro market factors may be driving the commodities today.

John Payne, Daniels Ag Marketing, looks at the grain settlements. Payne is still closely watching the currency markets to try and decide how global grain competitors will move forward.

Jack Fenske, York Commodities, looks at the closing market numbers. Fenske believes grains may have put highs in last week. He also see’s some long term value in cattle at this level, but is cautious any position as the market is extremely volatile.

Planting intentions report, where did the acres go, stocks, ethanol. Is there questioning of the USDA numbers? From end of month, end of quarter and moving into a new month how prices will fair be going into April. Human abilities and the futures. Long calls for the cattle market. Crazy livestock trade, COVID-19 & JBS. Volatility is there for the livestock stronger then we have seen in a long time.



OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Tuesday released its annual Planting Intentions and quarterly March 1 Grain Stocks reports.

Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s Grain Stocks report was bullish for corn, and neutral for soybeans and wheat. USDA’s planting intentions are bearish for new-crop corn, bullish for new-crop soybeans and neutral for new-crop wheat.


USDA expects farmers to plant 97 million acres to corn, above the range of pre-report expectations. If realized, it will the highest acreage since 2012. Planted acreage is expected to be higher than last year in 38 or the 48 reporting states. USDA surveyed farmers in the first two weeks of March, during which Saudi Arabia and Russia’s oil dispute shook global markets including ethanol.

Soybean acreage is estimated at 83.5 million acres, toward the low end of pre-report expectations. Compared to last year, planting intentions are up or unchanged in 22 or the 29 reporting states, with large increases anticipated in Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio and South Dakota.

All wheat acreage is estimated at 44.7 million acres, 1% below last year’s levels and the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1919. Winter wheat area, at 30.8 million acres is down from last year but even with pre-report expectations. Of that total, 21.7 ma will be planted to hard red winter, 5.69 to soft red winter, 3.42 ma to white winter. Spring wheat acreage is expected to decline 1% from last year to 12.6 million acres.

All cotton area is estimated at 13.7 ma, down less than 1% from last year.



Corn stocks on March 1 totaled 7.95 billion bushels (bb), down 8% from stocks a year ago and lower than the average pre-report analyst estimates. Of those corn stocks, farmers were holding 4.45 bb on the farm, which is 13% lower than a year ago. Off-farm stocks were at 3.5 bb, up just slightly from the same period in 2019.

Disappearance, or use, from December 2019 to February 2020 was 3.45 bb, compared to 3.32 bb for the same period last year.


As of March 1, soybean grain stocks were pegged at 2.25 bb, down 17% from last year and within the range analysts expected. Of those, USDA estimated 1.01 bb were stored on farm, down 20% from last year, and 1.24 bbwere stored off-farm, down 15% from last year.

The agency estimated that soybean usage for this past quarter (December 2019-February 2020) totaled 1 bb, down 1% from the same time period last year.


Total wheat stocks were estimated at 1.41 bb on March 1, down 11% from a year ago and within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates. On-farm stocks were pegged at 339 million bushels (mb), down 8% from last year, while off-farm stocks came in at 1.07 bb, down 12% from last year.

Usage from December 2019 through February 2020 was estimated at 428 mb, 3% up from the same period last year.

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
3/1/20 Avg High Low 12/1/19 3/1/19
Corn 7,953 8,162 8,492 7,892 11,389 8,613
Soybeans 2,253 2,237 2,701 2,075 3,252 2,727
Wheat 1,412 1,437 1,572 1,385 1,834 1,593
ACREAGE (million acres) USDA USDA
3/31/19 Avg High Low 2018-19 3/29/19
Corn 97.0 94.3 96.4 92.5 89.7 92.8
Soybeans 83.5 84.7 87.0 82.7 76.1 84.6
Cotton 13.7 13.8
Grain Sorghum 5.8 5.1
All Wheat 44.7 44.9 46.0 42.3 45.2 45.8
Winter 30.8 30.8 31.7 30.1 31.2 31.5
Spring 12.6 12.6 13.4 12.0 12.7 12.8
Durum 1.3 1.5 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.4

DDgs & the Albion plant closing, ethanol, how long will all this last, will the corn market react.  A lot of stuff we haven’t had to deal with before.  Planting attentions report out tomorrow.  Has it been overlooked?  Self-isolation looked forward to for spring planting.  Weekly export numbers.  Beans have had some positive news to start out the week.  South American Ports & COVID-19.  Dollar movement how will that effect the trade.  Cattle didn’t trade limit down on the day-so that’s a positive.  Hogs unfortunately went lower on expanded limits.


Kansas Corn STEM’s continuous learning resources provide at-home learning resources to be used by teachers and students while schools are closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These free resources can be found in the kansascornstem.com lesson library, and can be used online or printed for use in packets for off-line learning. The Kansas Corn STEM continuous learning lessons help students learn about science and agriculture using tools like virtual breakout box activities, videos and at-home experiments that can be done with household items. Several resources are already available at kansascornstem.com, and more will be added through the end of the school year.


“Our team of Kansas teachers were excited to build new lessons for continuous learning, and we are adding more lessons as we go through this period of at-home learning. These lessons are tailored specifically for at-home use, and are a great resource for teachers, parents and students who are continuing their education efforts at home during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Kansas Corn Director of Education Sharon Thielen, PhD said.


Kansas Corn STEM is the award-winning education program of the Kansas Corn Commission. It encompasses educational programs that provide lessons for teachers from the elementary level to the high school level. The materials can be used to help K-12 educators teach science using the topics of corn, biotechnology, ethanol, soil and water.


“Our education team continues to innovate with these new offerings,” Kansas Corn CEO Greg Krissek said. “Teachers, parents and students are looking for engaging STEM lessons that can be used at home, and we have the resources they need.”


Kansas Corn STEM contracts with lead teachers, inquiry ambassadors, agriculture education science trainers, curriculum writers, designers and education experts to provide lessons designed to meet Next Generation Science Standards.


“Going forward, these new resources enhance our current on-line educational lessons and labs and will have continued value both in conventional classrooms as well as home-school settings,” Thielen said.


In the last year, Kansas Corn STEM’s curriculum, training and materials reached over 51,000 Kansas students and teachers. In the current school year, the program is predicted to double its reach in Kansas schools. As the STEM program has continued to grow, the vision to continue expanding the program has continued to develop.


Kansas Corn STEM lessons are available at kansascornstem.com. Lessons are also highlighted on the Kansas Corn STEM page on Facebook: @kansascornstem.


What is going on in the cattle market & how do we survive it?  Friday finished another limit down day.  How do we recover?  Recap of the cash markets this week.  What is the packers story from their side?  Hogs also see a limit down trade.  Talk of China recover from COVID-19 they will need the proteins.  Drop in the corn market.  Energy is pulling the market lower.



Market chatter is still about COVID-19, Wheat bounced backwards today, a breather was expected.  Ethanol markets does not feel good. Are we going to see a dump in corn?  Will quarterly stocks or planting intentions help the market?  Will next week’s reports set the tone?   Cattle have been giving back a bit.


It’s an off day in the market trade…except for the wheat market that has been on fire.  Corn did have a bounce in recovery.  Meat & wheat going hand in hand.  Ethanol might have a part in that.  Soybeans are confused.  The meal market and demand are a big part of it.  Aid for farmers coming from DC.  Weather concerns in South America.


Light selling in the wheat…how did that effect the corn trade?  Oil & ethanol concerns.  How soon will we be back to normal? Planting intentions report due out at months end.  Could we see increase in unplanted acres?  Corn/bean ratio and what are we seeing in the basis?  Cattle market on expanded limits, one needs the other.  Is Tyson’s announcement effecting the markets?


It was a good market day with positive Ag markets.  Stock market wasn’t the best, Dow down.  Double digit increases in soybeans & Chicago/KC wheat.  Sue looks at the money leaving the stock market on rallies.  Money will find safety.  Ag could see a good return on their investment.  Packers are offering certain bids…but a bill in the house will focus on bottom prices for cattle to be purchased.  Will we see decreased numbers in next cold storage report?  Thoughts on the planting intentions report while looking at some new grain movement issues out of South America.