Grains continued mixed at midday with corn gaining value. Wheat and soybeans are still in the red. The Corona Virus panic seems to be subsiding somewhat today as the stock market is higher and safe havens such as the US Dollar and Gold are coming off their highs.
The Corona Virus has killed 106 mostly the elderly and children. The Chinese government is extending the Lunar New Year holiday to try an curb the spread of the virus.
USDA is reporting a sale of 124,355 MT of corn sold to Mexico Tuesday morning.
USDA is reported sales of 142,428 MT of corn sold to unknown on Monday.
USDA also reported a sale of 111,252 MT of corn sold to Japan for the 2020-2021 marketing year on Monday.
USDA released grain inspections Monday. Wheat disappointed traders falling below analysts estimates at 223,994 MT. Japan was the top destination with 82,000 MT. Ecuador and Mexico were also top destinations for US wheat. Corn exports totaled 668,559 MT and soybean exports totaled 1.04 MMT both within analysts estimates. China was listed as buying 486,000 MT of soybeans.
Brazilian farmers have completed 4.2% of soybean harvest as of last Friday according to AgRural an agriculture consultant company. That is about 9% behind where they were a year ago due to rains in Mato Grasso. While rain is delaying the harvest it doesn’t appear to be impacting the quality of the harvest. AgRural expects a bumper Brazilian crop of 123.9 MMT.
USDA-NASS are reporting that North Dakota has only harvested 49% of their corn crop. Based of FSA acreage numbers that would leave nearly 1,747,000 acres of corn in North Dakota unharvested.
US Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue is currently visiting the European Union. His mission is to try and start the conversation on decreasing the ten billion dollar trade deficit with the US. Secretary Perdue will also try to align the US and EU food safety rules to reflect “sound science.”
Despite a cattle on feed report that was neutral and retail meat prices that are similar to those of a year ago all three livestock markets saw limit lower moves in several contracts on Monday. Several analysts point to the tie between the stock market and live cattle market as helping with the sell off. Others point to the possible decreased demand for protein in China due to the Corona Virus.
Although livestock are on expanded limits today they have not tried to use them at midday. Lean hogs are coming back with a higher carcass price. Feeders are on the rise and live cattle struggle to find buyers at midday.
Cash cattle could still be strong this week as packers still appear to be short bought. Asking prices are expected to be established this morning with packer bids coming later in the week.
Retail meat prices are mixed this week. According to USDA data the top 15 cut average for beef is $5.01/lbs compared to $5.44/lbs last week and $4.96/lbs a year ago. Pork 4 cut average is $3.15/lb compared to $3.00/lb last week and $3.14/lb last year. Bacon prices are $4.79/lbs compared to $4.73/lbs a week ago and $4.90/lbs a year ago. Chicken 3 cut average was $1.56/lbs compared to $1.69/lbs last week and $1.78/lbs a year ago.
The USDA cattle on feed numbers for January were closely aligned with pre-report expectations. Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, said, “If you were looking for a surprising USDA report you are going to have to look else where this report is very neutral.” Listen to Jerry’s full comments below.
|USDA Actual||Average Estimate||Range|
|On Feed Jan. 1||102%||102.2%||101.6-102.5%|
|Placed in December||103%||103.2%||100.5-105.3%|
|Marketed in December||105%||105.2%||103.9-105.8%|
Beef Cutout at Midday Tuesday
Choice dn 0.45 214.04
Select up 0.84 211.54
C/S Spread 2.50
Carcass up 1.11 78.49
Bellies up 3.46 115.12
122,000 hd today 122,000 hd wk ago 117,171 hd yr ago
497,000 hd today 498,000 hd wk ago 465,595 hd yr ago
- Corn up 1 – 4 1/4
- Soybeans dn 2 3/4 – 3 1/2
- Chicago Wheat dn 1/4 – 3 1/4
- Kansas City Wheat dn 2 – 2 3/4
- Live Cattle dn 0.45 up 0.05
- Feeder Cattle up 0.22 – 0.62
- Lean Hogs up 0.47 -1.17
- Class III Milk dn 0.13 up 0.09
Pre-opening Market Broker Commentary
Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today. With the Corona Virus causing risk off feelings in the overnight markets Mark see’s traders putting money in safe havens during the day trade.
Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, discusses factors influencing the livestock trade today.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, shares his thoughts on the midday trade factors.
Closing commentary with John Payne, Daniels Ag Marketing, and Jack Fenske, York Commodities.
Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, breaks down the cattle on feed report.