Tag Archives: beans

Planting intentions report, where did the acres go, stocks, ethanol. Is there questioning of the USDA numbers? From end of month, end of quarter and moving into a new month how prices will fair be going into April. Human abilities and the futures. Long calls for the cattle market. Crazy livestock trade, COVID-19 & JBS. Volatility is there for the livestock stronger then we have seen in a long time.

 

 

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Tuesday released its annual Planting Intentions and quarterly March 1 Grain Stocks reports.

Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s Grain Stocks report was bullish for corn, and neutral for soybeans and wheat. USDA’s planting intentions are bearish for new-crop corn, bullish for new-crop soybeans and neutral for new-crop wheat.

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS

USDA expects farmers to plant 97 million acres to corn, above the range of pre-report expectations. If realized, it will the highest acreage since 2012. Planted acreage is expected to be higher than last year in 38 or the 48 reporting states. USDA surveyed farmers in the first two weeks of March, during which Saudi Arabia and Russia’s oil dispute shook global markets including ethanol.

Soybean acreage is estimated at 83.5 million acres, toward the low end of pre-report expectations. Compared to last year, planting intentions are up or unchanged in 22 or the 29 reporting states, with large increases anticipated in Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio and South Dakota.

All wheat acreage is estimated at 44.7 million acres, 1% below last year’s levels and the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1919. Winter wheat area, at 30.8 million acres is down from last year but even with pre-report expectations. Of that total, 21.7 ma will be planted to hard red winter, 5.69 to soft red winter, 3.42 ma to white winter. Spring wheat acreage is expected to decline 1% from last year to 12.6 million acres.

All cotton area is estimated at 13.7 ma, down less than 1% from last year.

USDA MARCH 1 GRAIN STOCKS

CORN

Corn stocks on March 1 totaled 7.95 billion bushels (bb), down 8% from stocks a year ago and lower than the average pre-report analyst estimates. Of those corn stocks, farmers were holding 4.45 bb on the farm, which is 13% lower than a year ago. Off-farm stocks were at 3.5 bb, up just slightly from the same period in 2019.

Disappearance, or use, from December 2019 to February 2020 was 3.45 bb, compared to 3.32 bb for the same period last year.

SOYBEANS

As of March 1, soybean grain stocks were pegged at 2.25 bb, down 17% from last year and within the range analysts expected. Of those, USDA estimated 1.01 bb were stored on farm, down 20% from last year, and 1.24 bbwere stored off-farm, down 15% from last year.

The agency estimated that soybean usage for this past quarter (December 2019-February 2020) totaled 1 bb, down 1% from the same time period last year.

WHEAT

Total wheat stocks were estimated at 1.41 bb on March 1, down 11% from a year ago and within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates. On-farm stocks were pegged at 339 million bushels (mb), down 8% from last year, while off-farm stocks came in at 1.07 bb, down 12% from last year.

Usage from December 2019 through February 2020 was estimated at 428 mb, 3% up from the same period last year.

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
3/1/20 Avg High Low 12/1/19 3/1/19
Corn 7,953 8,162 8,492 7,892 11,389 8,613
Soybeans 2,253 2,237 2,701 2,075 3,252 2,727
Wheat 1,412 1,437 1,572 1,385 1,834 1,593
PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS
ACREAGE (million acres) USDA USDA
3/31/19 Avg High Low 2018-19 3/29/19
Corn 97.0 94.3 96.4 92.5 89.7 92.8
Soybeans 83.5 84.7 87.0 82.7 76.1 84.6
Cotton 13.7 13.8
Grain Sorghum 5.8 5.1
All Wheat 44.7 44.9 46.0 42.3 45.2 45.8
Winter 30.8 30.8 31.7 30.1 31.2 31.5
Spring 12.6 12.6 13.4 12.0 12.7 12.8
Durum 1.3 1.5 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.4

DDgs & the Albion plant closing, ethanol, how long will all this last, will the corn market react.  A lot of stuff we haven’t had to deal with before.  Planting attentions report out tomorrow.  Has it been overlooked?  Self-isolation looked forward to for spring planting.  Weekly export numbers.  Beans have had some positive news to start out the week.  South American Ports & COVID-19.  Dollar movement how will that effect the trade.  Cattle didn’t trade limit down on the day-so that’s a positive.  Hogs unfortunately went lower on expanded limits.

 

Market chatter is still about COVID-19, Wheat bounced backwards today, a breather was expected.  Ethanol markets does not feel good. Are we going to see a dump in corn?  Will quarterly stocks or planting intentions help the market?  Will next week’s reports set the tone?   Cattle have been giving back a bit.

 

It’s an off day in the market trade…except for the wheat market that has been on fire.  Corn did have a bounce in recovery.  Meat & wheat going hand in hand.  Ethanol might have a part in that.  Soybeans are confused.  The meal market and demand are a big part of it.  Aid for farmers coming from DC.  Weather concerns in South America.

 

Light selling in the wheat…how did that effect the corn trade?  Oil & ethanol concerns.  How soon will we be back to normal? Planting intentions report due out at months end.  Could we see increase in unplanted acres?  Corn/bean ratio and what are we seeing in the basis?  Cattle market on expanded limits, one needs the other.  Is Tyson’s announcement effecting the markets?

 

It was a good market day with positive Ag markets.  Stock market wasn’t the best, Dow down.  Double digit increases in soybeans & Chicago/KC wheat.  Sue looks at the money leaving the stock market on rallies.  Money will find safety.  Ag could see a good return on their investment.  Packers are offering certain bids…but a bill in the house will focus on bottom prices for cattle to be purchased.  Will we see decreased numbers in next cold storage report?  Thoughts on the planting intentions report while looking at some new grain movement issues out of South America.

 

 

Just when you thought the markets couldn’t get anymore uncertain.  Always has had the feel the markets should trade…people need to have the opportunity to sell. Under the surface is the global supply system, ag has had issues with ports not being open, people not being able to get food-food reserves of the past seem to have gone away.  The feeling could be a strong behavioral change.  Smart Money insider buying currently being seen in the KC wheat, MN wheat, bean oil, lumber and live cattle markets. Class IV milk had some limit up action. 

What is the current situation in the corn and soybean markets?
Do you think the worst of the Coronavirus is behind us? What could the signal that Coronavirus’s impact on the market is coming to an end? What does it take for the crude oil market to go higher?
How concerned are you about the ethanol Industry? Do you think today’s move higher in the markets means we are going higher from here? Do you think the short-term lows are in the corn and soybean markets? How much lower do you think we can go? What are some surprises the could help the corn and soybean market go higher?