Tag Archives: beans

  • Wheat is the most confusing market right now
  • Light buyer support for soybeans
  • Dry weather concerns
  • Corn isn’t really expensive…yet beans have some good value
  • Cattle had some struggles in the trade, falling off the cliff today
  • Make sure you remember what kind of year this is-does that set the stage for 2021
  • Does the downtrend in cattle set the tone for cash this week?

 

  • WASDE report
  • Weather in the U.S. & South America
  • Chinese purchases overnight
  • Report did more for corn then for beans
  • Hurricane Delta
  • Hold beans/corn
  • Is there a worry that producers sold to soon on the grain?
  • Weather pattern change to the dryer side

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Friday released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bullish for soybeans, while the world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

SOYBEANS

USDA lowered soybean ending stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year to 290 million bushels, a 170 mb decline from September that was just slightly above the lowest pre-report estimate. USDA trimmed production forecasts by 45 mb, lowered beginning stocks by 52 mb and increased exports by 75 mb.

CORN

Old-crop corn ending stocks for 2019-20 were dropped 258 mb to 1.995 bb. With those lower beginning stocks, USDA also ended with lower corn ending stocks for 2020-21, which USDA dropped 336 mb to 2.167 bb. Production was pegged at 14.722 bb, down 178 mb from the September report.

Corn yields were adjusted ever so slightly to 178.4 bushels per acre, down from 178.5 million bushels in last month’s report. Harvest acres were also cut by 1 million acres down to 82.5 million acres.

For crop demand, USDA lowered feed and residual use by 50 mb to 6.475 bb. Ethanol demand was also lowered by 50 mb to 5.05 bb. Export demand was held at 2.325 bb, the same as September.

Total use was pegged at 14.575 bb, a 100 mb drop from the September report. With ending stocks at 2.167 bb, that dropped the stocks-to-use ratio for corn down to 14.8%, compared to 17% just a month ago.

The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was pegged at $3.60 a bushel, a dime above last month’s estimate.

Globally, USDA also lowered beginning stocks 4.91 million metric tons (mmt) and lowered global production 3.56 billion bushels as well. Exports were lowered 1.56 mmt as well. Collectively, that dropped the global ending stocks down 6.34 mmt for September to 300.45 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

USDA increased expected beef supply projections to 27.2 billion pounds, an increase of 90 million pounds from September estimates. Total use of beef is expected to increase by 255 million pounds during the month of October to 27.7 billion pounds. Pork supplies are estimated to decrease 80 million pounds during the month of October to 28.2 billon pounds. Export expectations of pork decreased by 200 million pounds in the October estimate at 7.3 billion pounds, moving total use to 21.8 billion pounds, based on increased domestic disappearance in the market. Estimated steer prices increased to $108.71 per cwt compared to September projections of $107.3 per cwt. Barrow and gilt prices posted the most significant projected price increase moving to $43.25 per cwt in Octobers estimate from September’s target of $39.40 per cwt.

  • Wheat up big again
  • All the grains up again
  • How can we interrupt negative numbers on the deferred contracts?
  • All of this related to weather globally
  • We are looking at potential serious weather issues
  • China, even on holiday, jumped into the markets to make purchases
  • Does China panic in weather markets both here & in South America
  • Feeder cattle continue to struggle

  • Key technical points on the corn & soybeans
  • Who will be the next big bean buyer?
  • Funds are they going to be long?
  • WASDE on Friday…how does that effect livestock?
  • Feeder cattle index has had a history of putting in a top in the beginning of October
  • What should we do with the calves? Do we hold & wait?
  • Cattle have been stuck in a range-does that make a boring trade?
  • Boxed beef is the low being put in?
  • COVID cases picking up does that make livestock nervous?

  • Chance for more rain in South America…really not a make or break
  • WASDE report out on Friday
  • Crop Progress report
  • Export sales holding strong
  • Ethanol has some support taking place
  • Dollar trade & grains
  • Cash cattle is hanging in there
  • Lack of momentum in the feeder cattle
  • Seeing a lot of cattle coming off grass
  • Hogs keep pushing to the upside

 

  • Recap the corn and soybean markets for the week.
  • Why have the markets been so volatile this week?
  • Did you see any surprises from the quarterly stocks report?
  • Do you think the smaller stocks were because of more demand or smaller crop?
  • Is there a way to forecast possible prices based on the information from the quarterly stock’s numbers?
  • What are possible corn and soybean prices based on the latest information?
  • How is the weather looking in South America?
  • What are the factors the corn and soybean markets will be focused on going forward?
  • What are your thoughts on basis going forward? Sell off combine or hold?

  • Exporting ethanol to Brazil…now they are trying to get plants started up
  • Circle the wagon on the USDA report of Wednesday
  • Weather in South America & Russia dry patterns picking up
  • What are the yields looking like?
  • October 9th crop report
  • Will China keep buying? Alliances in South America
  • Livestock showing tighter numbers on cattle
  • Asia buying in October for the holidays will see what it brings
  • Hogs see cash on fire…moved up to some levels that could see a top out