WHEAT: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for lower
supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies
are tightened with a reduction in projected imports by 5 million bushels to 140 million on a
slower-than-expected import pace, primarily for Hard Red Winter. Domestic consumption
is forecast down on lower-than-expected implied feed and residual use in the second and
third quarters based on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. As a result, annual feed and
residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 90 million. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks
are raised 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10.
The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for larger supplies, consumption, and
exports and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.6 million tons to 1,058.4 million
on increased production estimates for the EU, Moldova, and Pakistan. The world
consumption forecast is increased 1.1 million tons to 800.1 million. Food, Seed, and
Industrial use in India is increased 2.0 million tons this month to 106.2 million. The latest
monthly stocks reports issued by the Food Corporation of India shows continued open
market sales as the Government of India attempts to limit food price inflation ahead of
elections, which begin later this month. Global feed and residual use is forecast lower on
reductions for Russia and the United States that are only partly offset by increased use
for the EU.
Projected 2023/24 global trade is raised 1.3 million tons to 213.5 million, mostly on higher
export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine that are only partly offset by a reduction for the
European Union. Russia’s export forecast is raised 1.0 million tons to 52.0 million, as
shipments have continued at a robust pace. Ukraine exports are raised, up 1.5 million
tons to 17.5 million as competitive prices and expanded operating hours at the ports of
Odessa this year allow trade to increase. EU exports, however, are reduced 2.0 million
tons to 34.5 million as competition from the Black Sea has restrained their exports to
date. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks are down 0.6 million tons to 258.3 million as
lower stocks for India and Ukraine are only partly offset by increases for Algeria and the
EU. If realized, global stocks for 2023/24 would be five percent below last year and the
lowest since 2015/16.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for
ethanol and feed and residual use and smaller ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is
raised 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion based on data through February from the Grain
Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as
reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of March. Feed and
residual use is increased 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance
during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending
stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm
price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1,505.1
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for declines in production, trade, and
ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as cuts for South Africa,
Argentina, Mexico, and Moldova are partially offset by increases for the EU and the
Philippines. Corn production is cut for South Africa as a continuation of drought during
March further reduces yield prospects. Argentina and Mexico are both lowered reflecting
a decline in yield expectations. EU corn production is raised mostly reflecting increases
for Hungary, Poland, Spain, and France that are partly offset by declines for Romania,
Slovakia, and Bulgaria. Foreign barley production is virtually unchanged.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include lower forecast corn exports for South
Africa, India, and Tanzania but an increase for Russia. Corn imports are lowered for the
EU, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cuba, and Kenya but raised for Mexico. Barley
imports are raised for China but lowered for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn
ending stocks are essentially unchanged, mostly reflecting declines for Mexico and South
Africa that are offset by small increases for several countries. Global corn ending stocks,
at 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last month.
OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 includes lower
imports, residual, and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade is reduced on
pace to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly
lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The
U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down
10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents
per pound, respectively.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports,
crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production is lowered mainly for
South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield
potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tons to 10.5
million.
Global soybean exports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 173.1 million mainly on lower
exports for the United States and South Africa partly offset by higher shipments for
Paraguay. Imports are lowered for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria, and the United States, but
raised for the EU. Global soybean ending stocks are nearly unchanged with higher stocks
for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran, and Russia.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: For 2024, red meat and poultry production is
raised from last month. Beef production is raised due to heavier weights and higher
slaughter. Pork production is raised on higher hog slaughter more than offsetting a slight
decline in weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2024 reflects the information
provided in the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed higher pig crops
than previously reported for 2023 and continued strong growth in pigs per litter in early ’24.
Broiler production is raised based on recent production and hatchery data, as well
as a continuing trend of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is raised for the first
quarter on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered based on
recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying
flocks.
Beef exports are raised for 2024 based on recent trade data. Pork exports are also raised
based on strong exports reported through the first two months of the year. Larger U.S.
pork supplies will support exports. Broiler exports are lowered based on recent trade data
and expectations that higher prices may affect trade to a number of price sensitive
markets. Turkey exports are unchanged. Egg exports are raised slightly based on recent
trade data.
Cattle prices are raised for the year based on recent data and expected strength in
demand. Hog prices are also raised based on reported data and stronger-than-expected
demand. Broiler prices are raised based on recent price strength carrying into the rest of
the year. Turkey prices are lowered based on latest reported data and continued signs of
relatively weak demand. Egg prices are raised due to recent prices and expectations of
tighter supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered on slower expected growth in milk per
cow; cow numbers are unchanged from last month. Fat basis imports for 2024 are raised
on higher expected butter and cheese imports. Skim-solids basis imports are raised for a
number of dairy products. Fat basis exports are raised on strong international demand for
butter and price competitiveness of U.S. cheese. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered
as fewer expected shipments of lactose and whey products more than offset higher
shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese.
