May 12th, 2022 | USDA

Grains were strongly higher as the initial reaction to the may WASDE report. Livestock continued their negative trajectory of the trading session following the report.

USDA does note it is taking into consideration the Russian Ukraine war, saying at the top of the report, “Russia’s recent military invasion of Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally. The May WASDE represents an ongoing assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this action.”

The wheat outlook for the US from USDA “The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from last year, as higher yields more than offset a slight decrease in harvested area. The all wheat yield, projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, is up 2.3 bushels from last year. The first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8 percent from last
year as lower Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offset an increase in White Wheat production. Abandonment for Winter Wheat is the highest since 2002 with the highest levels in Texas and Oklahoma. Spring Wheat production for 2022/23 is projected to rebound significantly from
last year’s drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields.”

Corn outlook “The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices. The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels.”

Soybeans “The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021/22. The soybean crop is projected at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher harvested area. With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4.89 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2021/22. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 136.6 million tons, up 6.1 million from 2021/22 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for canola and sunflowerseed.”

Livestock “Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2023 is forecast below 2022, as lower beef production more than offsets higher pork and poultry production. For 2023, beef production is forecast lower with expected declines in both fed and non-fed cattle supplies. Pork production is forecast higher with increased farrowings and continued growth in productivity. Higher forecast broiler production reflects moderating feed costs and improved productivity. Turkey production is projected higher as the sector recovers from the 2022 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. Egg production is likewise forecast higher with postHPAI flock rebuilding.”

Check out the full USDA report here:


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