Daily market commentary

Daily market commentary
November 30th, 2022 | Rural Radio Network Staff

Midweek and the markets are grappling with the likelihood the rail strike has been avoided and that the US economy may not actually be in recession.

For the outside equities Wednesday brought the second reading of the GDP for the 3rd quarter which increased from 2.6% last month to 2.9% in October. That was above analyst expectations of 2.7%. It’s also a far cry from the -0.6% & -1.6% that we saw for the first and second quarters. With hope that the US economy is over the hump of recession equities quietly tried to move higher. However the deeper traders looked at the data the less they were impressed with what they saw. Retail inventories dropped 0.2% in October, while wholesale inventories increased by 0.8%. So the retail activity didn’t show a dramatic increase to help right the economy. According to Barron’s the top spenders that helped push the GDP higher was local, state and federal government spending. Along with exports which the higher US dollar should have helped.

In the grain complex soybeans and wheat were bullish Wednesday. Corn and soybean oil was bearish. USDA announced another flash sale of 136,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China on Wednesday. Meanwhile USDA’s final crop progress report for 2022 showed dramatic year over year drops in winter wheat conditions for some states. Illinois saw the largest year over year drop of 52% to 30% good to excellent. Kansas winter wheat dropped 41% to 20% good and excellent. Nebraska winter wheat dropped 41% to 21% good and excellent. That seemed to bring supply concerns around for the bulls to buy wheat once again.

Corn and soybean oil may have some bearish pressure resulting from concerns over future renewable fuel standards. EPA is expected to release the latest bio fuel blending requirements for refineries at the end of the week. US ethanol production data was also less than expected on Wednesday. US ethanol production dropped 23,000 barrels per day to 1.0.18 million barrels per day. US ethanol stocks were also up 100,000 barrels to 22.93 million barrels. Estimated marketing year to date #corn use for ethanol totals 1.185 billion bushels, down 94 million or 7.4% from the previous year.

In the livestock complex cattle lead the complex higher Wednesday. Feeder cattle in particular seem to be pulling some energy from the cash market where feeders of all sizes have been popular this week. The cash and carcass cutout have also helped the hogs.

In the country the Fed Cattle Exchange was unable to sell cattle on Wednesday, but may have set the tone for the cash market this week. Wednesday afternoon brought fed cattle trade to the South at $155 live. That is fully steady with last week. In the North there were bids of $156-$157 live. At the time of this writing there were no takers at those price levels.

For the week ending November 19, 2022, Imported Beef Passed for Entry in the U.S. totaled 45,629, 109.33% of the previous week and 105.34% of the 4-week average.

Daily slaughter estimates Wednesday

Cattle

128,000 hd today 129,000 hd wk ago 124,000 hd yr ago

Hogs

494,000 hd today 448,000 hd wk ago 479,000 hd yr ago

Wednesday Midday Carcass Cutout

Beef

Choice dn 2.51 252.23

Select dn 0.43 225.39

C/S Spread 26.85

Loads 84

Pork

Carcass up 2.52 88.20

Bellies dn 1.55 95.91

Loads 180

Pre-opening grains with Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing

Pre-opening livestock with Darrell Holaday of Country Futures NO Audio 11-30

Midday market commentary with Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics

Closing grain market commentary with Donna Hughes of Daniels Ag Marketing No audio 11-30

Closing market commentary with Jack Fenske with York Commodities

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