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For the week ending October 9th the Midwest sheep and goat market was broadly lower again. Last week there were some market segments to find higher undertones in, but this week those higher undertones seem to be few and far between. Feeder and slaughter kids in San Angelo Texas were slightly higher and Centennial Livestock reported a very strong feeder lamb market in Colorado. Slaughter lambs and goats continue to be under pressure though. Unfortunately a few weeks of lower prices are starting to build on each other and that could be causing some momentum to keep prices lower. The good news I take from this week is talking with those that attended the sales is that demand is picking back up and there are a few more buyers starting to hit the sales. Hopefully that means we can soon break out of this slump and start to turn the market higher. While the slaughter market is off it still seems the breeding and replacement market is holding strong. For associations and producers who are holding seedstock and replacement sales the market continues to be strong. One question I always ask these folks is if they are seeing the same old faces in the buying crowd or if there are new ones coming to the sale as well. So far the response has been new faces in the crowd along with the older buyers. Even better here is that these aren’t just acreage farmers looking for livestock suitable to a smaller operation. There are a lot of ranchers who are considering how they can incorporate a sheep flock or goat herd into their operation to diversify. All of this continues to bode well for the market in the longer term picture, but all good things must come to an end. If the slaughter market can’t eventually pick up it will likely result in pressure on the breeding market too.
Inflation is a word we continue to hear in the media when it comes to the US economy. The USDA released data this week that highlights what is happening at the grocery store with food price inflation. Meat prices rose most sharply year over year with beef and veal prices increasing 9.6 percent, pork prices increased 6.3 percent, and poultry prices increased 5.6 percent in 2020. USDA does not specifically categorize lamb/mutton, but they have an other meat category and that price was up 1.3% so that is very good news for lamb if it is actually a protein that is becoming more friendly to the consumer rather than more expensive. USDA did not release any retail data specific to this week at the time of writing this report. If it becomes available I will try to update the report to reflect the new data.
In terms of ethnic holidays, Prophet’s Birthday is almost here on October 18th and 19th. With no large spike in prices yet this could be the week if the holiday is to drive any extra demand.
Other commodity markets were mixed sideways this week. Mexico was aggressively purchasing US commodities. All of the USDA flash sales on grain exports this week were too Mexico. That wasn’t enough demand though to rally the grain market. Rather the market looks range bound with traders not wanting risk exposure over the weekend and causing a minor sell off at the end of the week. This coming week could be volatile for the grain complex as USDA gears up to release the latest world supply and demand numbers in the WASDE report. After the quarterly grain stocks surprise nothing is being put past USDA.
Other feed input markets to report include the hay market. Kansas and Nebraska hay markets reported steady prices once again this week. Western Nebraska was $2 higher per ton on grinding hay as conditions continue to be dry. In Kansas and Central Nebraska a lot of 4th cutting alfalfa was put up this week. Hay movement is still slow due to fall harvest. Which is okay as there are more reports of trucks having grain trailers hooked up rather than hay hauling flatbeds. Early on in harvest, hay demand to large cattle feeders has slumped as they add more silage to rations. This could switch after harvest and feedlots assess what they have for feed inputs and how far they want to stretch inputs. Many in the trade still expect an increase in hay prices this fall or winter.
For the week ending 10/8 lamb slaughter under federal inspection was estimated at 33,000 head on Friday. There is an expected Saturday slaughter of 1,000 head. That will bring the total weekly slaughter to 34,000 head. That’s 2,000 head more than the previous week and 1,000 head less than the previous year. Year to date lamb slaughter is at 1,460,000 head. About -0.5% or 8,000 head less than a year ago. Cattle slaughter continues to keep pace ahead of the previous year at 3.3%. Hog slaughter continues to slide behind 2020 now -1.9% behind. USDA data for goat slaughter this week was 9,540 head on Friday afternoon. Lamb and mutton production under federal inspection through 10/8 is estimated at 2.0 million pounds. That is up 100,000 pounds from the previous week. Year to date lamb and mutton production is estimated at 92.8 million pounds. Production continues to drop behind 2020 for the fourth month now by 3.9% or about 3.7 million pounds. The average live lamb weight for the week ending 10/1 was 118 pounds, unchanged from the previous week and down 2 pounds from last year. Dressed weights for lambs this week were 59 pounds. That is unchanged from the previous week and up 1 pound from a year ago.
Sale reports from the week
Here is a regional price range from all sales in the report. For a look at an individual sale follow the links to that sale.
Wool lambs
40-70 lbs $230-$300/cwt
70 lbs & up $187.50-$257.50/cwt
Hair lambs
40-70 lbs $240-$340/cwt
70 lbs and up $200-$320/cwt
Wool ewes
Slaughter $80-$145/cwt
Replacement N/A
Wool bucks N/A
Hair Ewes
Slaughter $90-$185/cwt
Hair Rams
Slaughter $110-$200/cwt
Kid Goats
20-40 lbs $260-$430/cwt
40-70 lbs $265-$370/cwt
Wethers 70+ lbs $250-$320/cwt
Does
Slaughter medium-fleshy $150-$215/cwt
Replacement $190-$280/HD
Bucks
Slaughter $140-$230/cwt
Breeding $215-$300/cwt
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