For only the third time in 2024, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, climbed above the 50.0 growth neutral threshold.
The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, rose to 51.3 for June from 48.2 in May, and represents the third time in 2024 that the index has risen above growth neutral.
“The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has vacillated around growth neutral since December of 2023. Additionally, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 outlook with approximately 48% expecting a downturn in economic activity for the remainder of 2024,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
Approximately 6% of supply managers have brought all of their international purchases back to the U.S. (i.e., reshored). Another 42% have reshored a portion of their purchasing to the U.S.
Supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the economic outlook with approximately 48% expecting a downturn in economic activity for the remainder of 2024.
As a result of a weak 2024 economy and cooling inflationary pressures, Goss expects a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meetings.
