For the week ending July 17th the Midwest sheep and goat market hit a cross road. Sheep were higher across the board. Heavyweight lambs saw the strongest gains. As for goats the market was mostly softer for both feeder and slaughter goats. The Ethnic market seems to really be driving the premium right now with the Festival of Sacrifice starting early next week. It would appear that heavier lambs are favored for this holiday. Islamic new year is the next major ethnic holiday that could help continue the strong market. That holiday falls on August 9-10. The big question still remains is where does the market go after we get through these holidays that is likely bringing premium to the market? The good news is that a good portion of the population is employed. First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to another post-pandemic low this week to 360,000. That was down from 386,000 the previous week and below analyst expectations of 368,000. With people employed and money still fairly strong they can continue to purchase their favorite protein especially when all meat at the meat counter has seen decent price appreciation. On the other hand inflation continues to rear it’s ugly head and the more volatile sectors of food and energy seem to be attracting more inflation. Meat can price itself out of demand no matter how well it is favored. With the inflation concern though that is more a long trend concern than short concern. Given the current economic climate the demand for lamb and goat should stay somewhat consistent through 2021.
Coming off the 4th of July holiday lamb at the meat counter actually saw some appreciation. USDA data shows the Lamb and Veal retail activity index was higher at 88.28% this week. Lamb features did decrease though by 1.10% and the special rate decreased by 1.00%. The lamb retail activity index increased by 104.40% this week. Roasts were the biggest mover for lamb increasing by 295.0% while chops decreased by 21.21%. Butterflied Boneless Leg was the most widely featured item among the Lamb features as prices were mixed.
Other commodity markets calmed their volatility, but set the stage for possible higher moves later on in the year. USDA left corn and soybean production relatively unchanged in the July WASDE report. The big surprise came in spring wheat where USDA dropped the yield estimate to its lowest level in over a decade. That combined with a very poor crop rating for spring wheat highlights just how dry it is in the Northern plains east to Minnesota. The extended forecast is still calling for hotter temps and continuing dryness for much of the Northern plains out through the first of August. This is not a good outlook for crops that are already drought stressed. It’s also not a good outlook for pastures that have desperately needed rain. Monday’s crop progress report noted Nebraska pasture and range declined 1% to 28% good to excellent. Kansas range declined 3% to 64% good to excellent.
Other feed input markets to report include the hay market. Kansas was the only report available at the time of this writing and they noted that prices were steady on all classes of hay. Still a lot of demand out there with plenty of hay moving North. Farmers are trying to keep up with an on and off wheat harvest. While also getting a second cutting hay put up. There are a few in the Southern portion of Kansas that are reporting a 3rd cutting about to be laid down.
For the week ending 7/17 lamb slaughter under federal inspection was estimated at 34,000 head on Friday. There is an expected Saturday slaughter of a 0 head. That will bring the total weekly slaughter to 34,000 head. That’s 3,000 head more than the previous week and 3,000 head less than the previous year. Year to date lamb slaughter is at 1,048,000 head. About 0.1% or 2,000 head more than a year ago. Cattle slaughter continues to keep pace ahead of the previous year at 4.7%. Hog slaughter continues to slide behind 2020 now -0.2% behind. USDA data for goat slaughter this week was 9,867 head on Friday afternoon. Lamb and mutton production under federal inspection through 7/17 is estimated at 2.1 million pounds. That is 200,000 pounds more than the previous week. Year to date lamb and mutton production is estimated at 68.3 million pounds. Now in its sixth week 2021 production dropped behind 2020 now by 2.6% or about 1.8 million pounds. The average live lamb weight for the week ending 7/17 was 124 pounds, unchanged from the previous week and down 5 pounds from last year. Dressed weights for lambs this week were 62 pounds. That is unchanged from last week and 3 pounds lighter than a year ago.
Individual sale quote links:
Hamilton Texas
http://www.hamiltoncommissioncompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/7.12.21-sg-sale.pdf
San Angelo Texas
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2014.pdf
Sioux Falls South Dakota
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2016.pdf
Kalona Iowa
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2153.pdf
Colby Kansas
Columbus Nebraska
No link available, but market participants noted strong demand an good prices.
