Reminder there will be no Sunday overnight market activity or Memorial day Monday.
Up, down and clear around sum up the markets this week. Coming into the end of the week just ahead of an extended weekend with Memorial Day Monday having no trade equities are on the rise, grains and livestock are mixed.
For the equities bulls overlooked a dismal GDP number on Thursday morning. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022, following an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. The decrease was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the “advance” estimate released in April.
In the grain complex the export sales and shipment numbers from USDA were not all that hot on Thursday morning. Wheat old crop net sales were in fact net cancellations. Mexico cancelled just over 38,000 MT. Part of the those sales were likely rolled into the 36,000 MT new crop purchases that Mexico made last week. Corn saw a similar happening with total old crop net sales of of 151,600 MT. That was a marketing-year low and down 63% from the previous week. Old crop corn sales cancellations included South Korea (57,000 MT), unknown destination (54,900 MT), and China (23,000 MT).
Meanwhile exports weren’t rosy for soybeans, but in line with analyst expectations. The big supporter of soybeans continues to be the push worldwide for veggie oils. Wednesday into Thursday Malaysian Palm oil futures pushed back into near record territory as labor shortages are expected to reduce palm oil production.
Soybeans may have also been supported by unwinding of a corn soybean spread. Mike Zuzolo highlights that possibility in his midday market commentary below.
In the livestock complex lean hogs seemed to join up with the soybeans on Thursday to bring back the “pork and bean trade”. For cattle weak cash and early buying has brought the sellers back in late week. Friday will be a critical day for cattle futures to hold the line to try and hold off bearish momentum building over the holiday weekend.
In the country this week trade started lightly on Tuesday and has trickled through the week. Southern live trade has been marked at mostly $137, $1 lower than last week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were at mostly $223, generally $3 lower than last week’s weighted averages basis Nebraska.
For the week ending May 14, 2022, Imported Beef Passed for Entry in the U.S. totaled 51,010, 100.50% of the previous week and 103.15% of the 4-week average.
Slaughter Estimates Friday
120,000 hd today 123,000 hd wk ago 117,000 hd yr ago
25,000 hd Sat 58,000 hd wk ago 33,000 hd yr ago
456,000 hd today 457,000 hd wk ago 425,000 hd yr ago
11,000 hd Sat 58,000 hd wk ago 21,000 hd yr ago
Friday Midday Carcass Cutout
Choice up 0.96 264.93
Select up 2.26 246.69
C/S Spread 18.24
Carcass up 0.39 108.52
Bellies dn 8.07 160.76
Pre-opening grains with Ed Dugan of Top Third Ag Marketing
Pre-opening livestock with Jerry Stowell of Country Futures
Midday market commentary with Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics
Closing grain market commentary with Donna Hughes of Daniels Ag Marketing
Closing market commentary with Jack Fenske with York Commodities