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November WASDE holds surprises for US ending grain stocks | Rural Radio Network

November WASDE holds surprises for US ending grain stocks

November WASDE holds surprises for US ending grain stocks

USDA on Tuesday released its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

USDA lowered the average corn yield by 2.6 bushels per acre (bpa) in the report, down to 175.8 bpa. That dropped corn production by 215 million bushels (mb) to 14.5 billion bushels (bb). USDA lowered new-crop ending stocks to 1.7 bb, following a 325 mb increase to export forecasts.

Soybean ending stocks estimates for the 2020-21 marketing year came in at 190 mb — 100 mb lower than last month. Despite rising interest from China, the change didn’t come from exports. USDA lowered its production estimate for soybeans by 98 mb to 4.170 bb by lowering the average national yield to 50.7 bpa.

CORN

Several surprises came in the 2020-21 corn numbers as USDA lowered the average corn yield to 175.8 bpa, a 2.6-bushel decline from October, while USDA also increased export sales for corn to a potential record volume as well and dramatically cut the estimated ending stocks.

Keeping harvested acres at 82.5 million acres, that lowered 2020-21 corn production to 14.507 bb, a 215 mb decline from the October estimate. That put total supply at 16.527 bb.

On the demand side, USDA lowered total domestic use by 75 mb by lowering the feed and residual use for corn by that amount, bringing feed and residual use down to 5.7 bb, based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Ethanol demand remained steady at 5.05 bb.

Exports were the 2020-21 corn crop were pumped up to 2.65 bb, up 325 mb from the October estimated. If realized, that would be a record high for U.S. corn exports, USDA stated.

Total use was forecast at 14.825 bb, up 250 mb from October. That brought down ending stocks to an estimated 1.702 bb, a decline 465 mb from October.

The stocks-to-use ratio for corn came it at 11.48%, compared to 14.8% in the October report.

The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was posted at $4.00 a bushel, a robust 40-cent bump from the October report.

Globally, USDA also raised the import estimates for Chinese corn imports to 13 million metric tons (mmt), up from 7 mmt estimated in the October report.

SOYBEANS

U.S. soybean growers are expected to harvested 4.17 bb this fall, 98 mb lower than what USDA estimated last month. The agency cut its yield estimate by 1.2 bpa to 50.7 bpa, below the range of pre-report expectations. The agency said lower yields were reported in major soybean growing states, including Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Nebraska.

The production change resulted in most of the 100-million-bushel decline in new-crop soybean ending stocks. USDA put ending stocks at 190 mb. It also made small tweaks to seed use, up 3 mb, and residual use, down 1 mb.

The national average farm gate price increased by 60 cents to $10.40 per bushel.

Globally, USDA lowered 2020-21 ending stocks to 86.52 million metric tons (mmt), which is toward the low end of pre-report expectations. USDA left Brazilian production unchanged at 133 mmt but lowered Argentine production by 1.5 mmt to 51 mmt. Chinese import demand was left unchanged at 100 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA pegged 2020-21 U.S. wheat production at 1.826 bb, unchanged from last month. Average yield was also left at 49.7 bpa, with acreage still forecast for 44.3 million acres planted. Old-crop (2019-20) wheat production was also left unchanged 1.08 bb.

The agency trimmed ending stocks to 877 mb, in line with pre-report analyst estimates. That drop came from USDA upping food use of wheat stocks by 5 mb and seed by 1 mb.

Globally, USDA pegged total wheat production for 2020-21 at 772.38 mmt, a 0.7 mmt decrease from the October report. That drop came mostly from production losses in Argentina, where drought and a local freeze dropped its forecast production down 1 mmt to the lowest in eight years, at 18 mmt.

World ending stocks were projected at 320.45 mmt, in line with pre-report analyst estimates, and down 1 mmt from October, due to increased world consumption, mainly from higher feed and residual use for China and the EU. China’s wheat imports hit 8 million tons, on track to be the largest since 1995-96.

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Nov Avg High Low Oct 2019-20
Corn 14,507 14,645 14,820 14,250 14,722 13,620
Soybeans 4,170 4,253 4,320 4,189 4,268 3,552
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2020-21 (WASDE)
Nov Avg High Low Oct 2019-20
Corn 175.8 177.5 179.2 175.0 178.4 167.5
Soybeans 50.7 51.7 52.5 50.9 51.9 47.4
U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2020-21
Nov Avg High Low Oct 2019-20
Corn 82.5 82.5 82.7 82.3 82.5 81.3
Soybeans 82.3 82.3 82.3 82.3 82.3 74.9
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Nov Average High Low Oct
Corn 1,702 2,048 2,215 1,950 2,167
Soybeans 190 239 308 195 290
Wheat 877 874 902 818 883
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2020-21
Nov Avg. High Low Oct
Corn 291.4 297.8 302.2 292.0 300.5
Soybeans 86.5 87.6 89.0 86.3 88.7
Wheat 320.5 320.0 322.6 318.9 321.5

 

See the full report here:

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1120.pdf

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